Leveraging capital to foster growth sustainably
Key Takeaways :
• BBRI net income contracted -16.2% QoQ in 4Q22 but still delivering +67.1% YoY increase in FY22. Net income reached IDR51.4tn forming 104% consensus estimate and hitting an all-time-high record.
• Post merger synergy under UMi holding theme continued and thus resulting higher CASA ratio and lower CoF boosting NIM to 7.85%.
• We foresee BBRI to lever its strong capital and adequate liquidity to foster 10-12% loan growth FY23F. The continuous improvement in asset quality just like other banks should provide room to reduce CoC while having adequate coverage and thus +12.6% FY23F EPS growth is likely in our view.
• Positive catalysts are also coming from potentially sizeable dividend payment with payout possibly ~70% and IDR1.5tn share buyback program. We see upside risk on valuation.
• Reiterate BUY on BBRI with the TP of IDR5,700/share. Key upsides : 1) NIM expansion and 2) better than expected asset quality. Key downsides : 1) slower than expected UMi integration and 2) higher than expected Opex.
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