EXCL’s 1H24 Performance: Keeping the Ball Rolling
Key Takeaways:
▪️EXCL posted revenue of IDR8.6 tn in 2Q24, up +2.1% QoQ/+4.8% YoY or IDR17.0 tn (+8.2% YoY) in 1H24, slightly below our/consensus estimates at 48.7%/48.9%. We maintain our projections with revenue growths of +8.4%/+8.0% YoY in FY24E/FY25F at IDR35.0 tn/IDR37.8 tn, supported by the robust blended ARPU performance of EXCL (IDR44.0k as of 1H24), closing in on TSEL’s mobile ARPU of IDR45.2k in the same period. Additionally, data consumption rose by +8.5% YoY in 2Q24 to 2,660 PB, translating to a +13.2% YoY increase in 1H24 (5,269 PB).
▪️We observed a steady yield in the data & digital business, rising by +0.5% QoQ to IDR3,013.4/GB in 2Q24 (vs. IDR2,998.4/GB in 1Q24), reflecting EXCL’s ability to sustain competitive pricing despite the launch of Telkomsel Lite earlier this year.
▪️EBITDA reached IDR4.6 tn in 2Q24 (+1.2% QoQ/+11.4% YoY) and totalled IDR9.3 tn in 1H24 (+16.4% YoY), exceeding our/consensus estimates at 52.5%/52.8%, respectively. The EBITDA margin stood at 54.2% in 2Q24 (vs. 51.0% in 2Q23 and 54.7% in 1Q24) and 54.5% in 1H24 (vs. 50.6% in 1H23). we maintain our forecast for EBITDA to improve by +11.2%/+9.3% YoY in FY24E/FY25F, with margins of 50.4%/51.1%.
▪️The bottom line was recorded at IDR485.9 bn in 2Q24 (-9.9% QoQ/+8.0% YoY) and reached IDR1.0 tn in 1H24 (+57.5% YoY), exceeding our/consensus projections with run rates of 56.7%/56.6%, supported by effective costs management during the semester.
▪️We maintain a BUY recommendation for EXCL with a TP of IDR2,850/share (+27.8% upside), implying 4.7x/4.3x of FY24E/FY25F EV/EBITDA.
