Global Market Update
• The 10-year U.S. treasury yield dipped 4 bps to 1.55% on Friday (11/19/21). U.S. treasury yields varied 2-6 bps along the curve.
• U.S. stocks market closed mixed last Friday with DJI and S&P 500 dropped 0.75% and 0.14% respectively, while Nasdaq Composite hiked 0.40%.
• Canada’s retails sales reported a decrease of 0.6% MoM or increasing 4.8% YoY in Oct-21, from +1.8% MoM / +8% YoY during the prior month.
• Statistics Canada reported 7 of 11 sectors experienced a downfall. The biggest drop occurred in motor vehicle dealers, due to shortage in semiconductor chips, and clothing stores.
• Canada’s new housing price index increased by +0.9% MoM/+11.5% YoY in Oct-21, higher than the previous month’s figure of +0.4% MoM/+11.3% YoY.
• Despite the incline of its inflation rate to 10-year high last month, U.K. consumer confidence index noted an increase to -14 in Nov-21. This figure was slightly higher than the previous month at -17 indicating a positive sentiment in British consumers ahead of the holiday season.
• U.K retail sales rose by 0.8% MoM in Oct-21, surpassed both the Sep-21 and market estimate figures of 0% and 0.5% MoM consecutively. The biggest upwards pressures were driven by second-hand, games and toys, and clothing stores.
• On year-on-year basis, U.K. retail sales edged down -1.3% YoY in Oct-21, lower than the previous month of -0.6% YoY.
• Germany’s PPI significantly rose by +3.8% MoM/+18.4% YoY in Oct-21, exceeding the consensus forecast at +1.9% MoM/+16.2% YoY. This expansion hit the 70-year high primarily driven by continuous surging energy prices, ongoing shipment issues and a low base year.
Domestic Market Update
• The 10-year Indo GB remained at a level of 6.02% on Friday (11/19/21), well aligned with our projection range of 6.00-6.10%.
• The value of Rupiah against USD weakened at IDR14,238/USD. At the same time, 5- year Indo CDS also slipped to 77.29 bps.
• Indonesia’s current account noted a surplus of USD4.47 bn in 3Q21 or equivalent to +1.5% of GDP. This is considered as a huge gain from -USD2.0bn, equivalent to - 0.7% of GDP in 2Q21.
• Bank Indonesia (BI) reported a surplus in 3Q21’s balance of payment of USD10.7 bn, rebounded from -USD0.4 bn throughout the previous quarter.
Market Projection
• We foresee the 10-year Indo GB yield to continue to move sideways within range of 6.00-6.10% today given the lack of external pressures.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0086, FR0090, FR0071, FR0078, FR0087, FR0091, FR0068, FR0088, FR0083 and FR0092.
Disclaimer
