Global Market Update
• The U.S. bond and stocks market were closed on Thursday (11/25/21) due to Thanksgiving Day.
• European stocks market gained last night with DAX up by 0.25%, FTSE advanced 0.33% and CAC jumped 0.48%.
• Despite the jump in stock market performance, European investors also remained concern on the arising Covid-19 cases, resulting in the implementation of new restrictions by some countries.
• Germany GDP grew 1.7% QoQ throughout 3Q21, from a pace of 2% QoQ within the previous quarter. Both of its exports and imports experienced a downfall of 1% and 0.6% respectively.
• On the annual basis, its GDP growth rate decelerated to 2.5% YoY in 3Q21, from 10% YoY during 2Q21. This rate however still in line with the market forecast.
• The advanced reading of Germany’s Gfk consumer climate index expected a drop to -1.6 in Dec-21. This rate is significantly below the prior month’s reading at 1, primarily weighed down by the inflationary pressures and incline of Covid-19 infections.
• France reported a significant fall on its initial jobless claims to -111.2K in Oct-21, a 102% lower than the previous period at -55K.
• South Korea’s interest rate lifted to a level of 1% in Nov-21, in line with the consensus estimate but slightly higher than the Oct-21’s figure of 0.75%. Domestic
Market Update
• The 10-year Indo GB closed at 6.05% on Thursday (11/25/21), still in line with our forecast range of 6.00-6.10%.
• The value of IDR depreciated against USD yesterday at IDR14,268/USD. Meanwhile, 5-year Indo CDS left unchanged at a level of 80.30 bps.
• Indonesia budget deficit was reported at IDR548.9tn (-3.29% GDP) in Oct-21. Budget deficit narrowed compared to Oct-20 at IDR764.8tn (-4.67% GDP).
• Indonesia car sales recorded at 75,544 units in Oct-21 (-10.2% MoM/+54% YoY). Cumulatively domestic car sales reached 703,089 from Jan-Oct 2021 or increasing 67% YoY over the same period last year.
• Car sales has seen to experience a gradual recovery and now is nearing its prepandemic level on monthly average unit basis.
• Some key factors to boost domestic car sales including : 1) the extension of PPnBM relax; 2) accommodative macroprudential policy; 3) improving mobility; and 4) lowering trend in vehicle ownership loan interest rates.
Market Projection
• We see no sign of a pressure in the global financial markets therefore we expect the 10-year Indo GB yield to remain flat within the range of 6.00-6.10% today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today: FR0086, FR0090, FR0071, FR0078, FR0087, FR0091, FR0068, FR088, FR0083 and FR0092.
Disclaimer
