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Company Update

18 Juli 2024

Fixed Income Report July 18, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street saw mixed results on July 17, as the DJIA rose by +0.59%, the S&P 500 slipped by -1.39% and the Nasdaq closed down by -2.77%.
• The Dow Jones hit a new record high on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq dropped to a 2-week low, leading to a mixed close for stock indexes. The market struggled due to a decline in chip stocks and megacap tech companies, prompted by concerns over potential US restrictions on Chinese trade and semiconductor technology.
• The 10-yr UST yields closed down by -1.0 bps to 4.16%, while the 2-yr yields fell by -1.0 bps to 4.42%. Strong demand for the Treasury’s USD13 billion auction of 20-year T-bonds led to short covering in T-notes, with gains in T-notes increasing on Wednesday afternoon after the dovish Fed Beige Book release.
• US housing starts for June increased by +3.0% MoM to 1.353 million units, surpassing expectations. Meanwhile, building permits rose by +3.4% to 1.446 million units, indicating strong momentum in future construction activity.
• The US manufacturing production defied expectations in June, registering a stronger-than-anticipated increase of +0.4% MoM. This positive movement comes after forecasts of a +0.1% MoM rise.
• The average contract interest rate for conforming 30-year fixed mortgages fell 13 bps to 6.87% for the week ending July 12th, 2024. This follows a rate of 7.00% in the prior week.
• In Europe, UK inflation in June 2024 remained steady at 2%, marking the second consecutive month at this level and defying forecasts of a slight decrease to 1.9%.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Wednesday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -0.6 bps to 2.42%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose by +2.7 bps to 4.08%, and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +1.2 bps to 1.04%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bond were mixed on July 17, with the 10-yr benchmark yield declined by -3.19 bps to 6.91%, while the 2-yr yield grew by +0.87 bps to 6.87%.
• The IDR gained ground against the USD on Wednesday (USD/IDR fell by 0.49% to 16.100), following Bank Indonesia’s decision to hold interest rate steady.
• Bank Indonesia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.25% in line with market forecasts. This decision reflects BI's short-term monetary policy priorities of strengthening the Rupiah's exchange rate and encouraging foreign capital inflows.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101, FR0081, and FR0100 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.14tn, IDR2.13tn, and IDR2.05tn, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and FR0097 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0075 , FR0098, FR0092. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR75 FR98 FR92

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