• Wall Street finished higher on September 30, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed up by +0.04%, +0.42%, and +0.38%, respectively.
• Stocks bounced back from early declines Monday, ending higher as strong economic data supported a soft landing outlook. Fed Chair Powell and Governor Bowman's hawkish comments initially pressured the market, pushing T-note yields up, dampening speculation of a November rate cut.
• The 10-yr UST yield rose by +6.0 bps to 3.81%, while the 2-yr yield surged by +11.0 bps to 3.66%. T-note prices slipped Monday, weighed down by hawkish Fed signals. Moreover, stronger US economic data and rising inflation expectations drove T-notes lower, with the 10-yr breakeven inflation rate reaching 2.190%, a 2-month high.
• The September MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly increased by +0.5 to 46.6, beating forecasts of a slight decline to 46.0.
• The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity index for Texas rose slightly to -9 in September 2024 from -9.7 in August, signaling the least negative outlook since January 2023.
• In Europe, the UK GDP grew 0.7% YoY in 2Q24, revised down from the initial 0.9% YoY estimate. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.5% QoQ, slightly below the previous estimate of 0.6% QoQ.
• In Asia, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 in September 2024, up from August’s 49.1 and surpassing expectations of 49.5. However, factory activity has now contracted for five straight months.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Monday, with the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -1.0 bps to 2.12%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield grew by +2.6 bps to 4.0%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed up +0.7 bps to 0.86%.
