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Company Update

02 Oktober 2024

Fixed Income Report October 2, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street ended in negative territory on October 1, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed down by -0.41%, -0.93%, and -1.53%, respectively.
• Stocks fell moderately on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting 1-week lows. Heightened Middle East tensions, with Israel's ground assault into Lebanon and Iran's missile attack, pressured equities. US economic data was mixed, as job openings exceeded expectations, while the ISM manufacturing index for September underperformed.
• The 10-yr UST yield fell by -7.0 bps to 3.74%, and the 2-yr yield dropped by -5.0 bps to 3.61%. This decline was driven by easing price pressures, as the ISM prices paid sub-index reached a 9-month low of 48.3. Additionally, escalating tensions in the ME bolstered demand for safe-haven assets like T-notes.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed at 47.2 in September, missing expectations of a rise to 47.5, while the prices paid sub-index fell to 48.3, a 9-month low and below forecasts of 53.5.
• The total job openings in the US climbed to 8.040 million in August 2024, marking a rise of 329,000 from 7.711 million in July, and beating market forecasts of 7.655 million.
• The Eurozone annual inflation fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, down from 2.2% in August and below the ECB's target of 2%. In addition, core inflation also softened, falling from 2.8% to 2.7%.
• Global bond yields moved lower on Tuesday, with the 10-yr German bund yield slipped by -8.0 bps to 2.03%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield lowered by -6.2 bps to 3.94%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB edged  down by -0.5 bps to 0.86%.

Domestic Market Updates
 
• Indonesian LCY government bond yields rose on Tuesday, with the 10-yr yield climbed +1.7 bps to 6.45% and the 5-yr yield surged +2.8 bps to 6.18%. Selling pressure weighed on bond prices across most maturities, with notable gains were seen in the 13-yr, 3-yr, and 1-yr yields, which increased by +12.6, +6.9, and +6.6 bps, respectively.
• The IDR weakened against the USD on Tuesday, with USD/IDR rose by +0.40% to 15,200, while the dollar index rose by +0.29% to 101.07.
• BPS announced the inflation rate at +1.84% YoY in September 2024, down from +2.12% YoY in August, missing expectations. The CPI registered an unexpected decline of -0.12% MoM, the fifth consecutive monthly drop, after falling -0.03% MoM in August.
• In Tuesday’s SUN auction, investors secured IDR24.0 trillion in winning bids from a total of IDR46.64 trillion. Notably, FR0104 received the highest awarded bid, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.64, securing IDR8.60 trillion from a total bid of IDR14.13 trillion.
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0103, FR0104, and FR0098 saw notable interest in outright transactions, recording the highest trade volumes of IDR10.23 trillion, IDR9.41 trillion, and IDR6.10 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0102, FR0103, FR0091 and PBS038 were the most frequently traded series.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.45-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0059, FR0099, FR0074, FR0075. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR84 FR59 FR99 FR74 FR75

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