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Company Update

10 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 10, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street ended higher on September 9, as the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed up by +1.20%, +1.16%, +1.16%, respectively.
• Stocks gained moderately on Monday as dip buying followed Friday’s sell-off. Chip stocks lifted the broader market, with Nvidia (NVDA) up over 3% and Tesla (TSLA) rising more than 2%. In addition, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged 13%, and Dell Technologies (DELL) gained more than 3% after both were announced as additions to the S&P 500, effective September 23.
• The 10-yr UST yield fell by -2.0 bps to 3.70%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +2.0 bps to 3.68%. T-notes experienced a weaker start on Monday as the stock market's recovery reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, the upcoming auction of USD119 billion in Treasury debt, beginning with a USD58 billion 3-yr T-note on Tuesday, is expected to weigh on bond prices.
• Markets are eyeing Wednesday’s US CPI data to see if inflation has cooled enough for the Fed to ease policy more aggressively. Consensus expects August CPI to dip to +2.6% YoY from +2.9% in July, while the August core CPI is forecast to remain steady at +3.2% YoY.
• The Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone fell to -15.4 in September from -13.9 in August, marking its lowest level since January 2024. This indicates growing pessimism among investors about the economic outlook in the Eurozone.
• In Asia, China's annual inflation rose to +0.6% YoY (+0.4% MoM) in August 2024 from +0.5% in July, below the forecast of +0.7%. Meanwhile, producer prices fell -1.8% YoY, deeper than July's -0.8% drop and worse than the expected -1.4%.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Monday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -0.4 bps to 2.16%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield slid -3.0 bps to 3.86%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed up by +4.7 bps to 0.90%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian series of local currency government bond were mixed on September 9, with the 10-yr yield rose by +1.2 bps to 6.61%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -0.5 bps to 6.45%.
• The IDR weakened against the USD on Monday, with USD/IDR down by -0.51% to IDR15,455, following foreign outflows of IDR2.49 trillion from the domestic financial market as reported by Bank Indonesia last Friday.
• Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Survey for August 2024 indicated a rise in consumer confidence regarding economic conditions compared to the previous month. This is reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 124.4 in August 2024, up from 123.4 in the prior month.
• In Monday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0050, FR0097, and FR0100 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.05 trillion, IDR2.63 trillion, and IDR1.37 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, PBS038, and FR0102 were the most frequently traded series. 

Market Forecast
 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0099, FR0074, FR0083, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR99 FR74 FR83 FR92

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