Beranda

RESEARCH

Company Update

11 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 11, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street had a mixed performance on September 10; the DJIA closed down -0.23%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained +0.45% and +0.84%, respectively.
• Major stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday, lifted by tech stocks despite weakness in banks and energy. Tesla surged +4.6%, Amazon gained +2.4%, and Microsoft added +2.1%, while energy stocks struggled as WTI crude oil dropped -4.3% to a 16-month low.
• The 10-yr UST yield declined -5.0 bps to 3.65%, while the 2-yr yield tumbled by -9.0 bps to 3.59%. T-notes initially fell on supply pressures from the Treasury’s USD58 billion auction of 3-yr T-notes, part of a USD119 billion package of T-notes and T-bonds this week.
• In Europe, Germany's annual inflation rate was confirmed at 1.9% in August 2024, down from 2.3% in July. The EU-harmonized CPI fell to 2.0% YoY from 2.6% and decreased 0.2% MoM, after a 0.5% increase in July.
• In Asia, China's trade surplus rose +34.23% YoY to USD 91.02 billion in August 2024, up from USD 67.81 billion a year ago. Exports climbed +8.7% YoY to USD 308.65 billion, the highest in 23 months, while imports increased +0.5% to USD 217.63 billion, sharply down from a +7.2% rise in July.
• Global bond yields declined on Tuesday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell -3.8 bps to 2.13%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield dropped -3.7 bps to 3.82%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB edged down -0.1 bps to 0.90%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian series of local currency government bond were mixed on September 10, with the 10-yr yield rose by +0.04 bps to 6.61%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -0.69 bps to 6.44%.
• The IDR moved sideways against the USD on Tuesday, with USD/IDR fell by -0.03% to IDR15,450. This movement came amid increasing global market volatility, with domestic markets appearing stagnant, as seen in sukuk auctions and secondary market activity.
• Retail sales in August are projected to grow +1.6% MoM, after a -7.2% MoM drop in July, according to Bank Indonesia. Gains are expected in Food, Beverages, Tobacco, and other categories, boosted by Independence Day demand and retailer discounts.
• The SBSN auction on Tuesday saw reduced demand, with total bids falling IDR21.27 trillion from IDR23.88 trillion previously. The highest awarded amount was for PBS038, which received IDR2.40 trillion at a weighted average yield of 6.96% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.01. The auction’s total awarded amount was IDR8.00 trillion.
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0096, and PBS030 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.08 trillion, IDR1.65 trillion, and IDR1.59 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, PBS038, and FR0100 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast
 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0074, FR0083, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR74 FR83 FR92

Back Download PDF
Copyright © 2024 MNC Sekuritas. All Right Reserved. A Member of MNC Group