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Company Update

12 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 12, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street rallied on September 11, with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing up by +0.31%, +1.07%, and +2.17%, respectively.
• Stocks rebounded on Wednesday, closing higher as gains in chip stocks lifted the technology sector and boosted the broader market. Investors weighed August inflation data that came in line with expectations, leading to a decreased probability of a more aggressive Fed rate cut.
• The 10-yr UST yield remained steady at 3.65%, while the 2-yr yield increased by +3.0 bps to 3.62%. Treasury yields fell as August CPI came in line with expectations, lowering the odds of a 50 bps Fed rate cut and weakening demand for safe-haven assets.
• US CPI for August eased to +2.5% YoY from +2.9% YoY in July, aligning with expectations and marking the smallest increase in 3.5 years. However, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at +3.2% YoY, also matching forecasts.
• US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.4% for the week ending September 6, with purchase and refinancing sub-indices up +1.8% and +0.9%, respectively. The average 30-yr fixed mortgage rate fell -14 bps to 6.29%.
• In Europe, the British economy grew +1.2% YoY in July 2024, up from +0.7% in June, reflecting improved economic activity across key sectors. However, the growth rate was below forecasts of +1.4%.
• Global bond yields declined on Wednesday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -1.9 bps to 2.11%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield decreased by -5.8 bps to 3.76%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed down by -4.4 bps to 0.86%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of local currency government bond declined on September 11, with the 10-yr benchmark yield fell by -3.0 bps to 6.58%, while the 5-yr yield fell by -1.76 bps to 6.46%.
• The IDR gained against the USD on Wednesday, with USD/IDR fell by -0.32% to IDR15,400 as the dollar index slipped -0.18% to 101.45 following US inflation data that is anticipated to ease, boosting prospects for a Fed rate cut.
• Investor demand for government bonds stayed robust on Wednesday, pushing yields lower across the curve. The 8-yr yield saw the largest drop, falling by -4.5 bps. The 9-yr and 20-yr yields followed suit, with declines of -3.5 and -3.2 bps, respectively.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0086, and FR0103 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR5.84 trillion, IDR2.68 trillion, and IDR2.38 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and FR0081 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast
 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0074, FR0083, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR74 FR83 FR92

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