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Company Update

13 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 13, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street extended gains on September 12, with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing up by +0.58%, +0.75%, and +1.00%, respectively.
• Stocks rebounded on Thursday, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching 1-week highs and the Nasdaq hitting a 1.5-week high. Positive corporate news, including Warner Bros' +10% gain and Nvidia's +1% rise, boosted the market. US stocks also drew support from a rally in European stocks, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +1.06% following the ECB's deposit rate cut by -25 bps to 3.50%.
• The 10-yr UST yield rose by +3.0 bps to 6.68%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +2.0 bps to 3.64%. Thursday's stock rally cut safe-haven demand for T-notes, but losses were capped by higher-than-expected US jobless claims and solid demand at the 30-yr T-bond auction.
• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose +0.2% in August, in line with expectations, while core PPI increased +0.3%, slightly above the +0.2% forecast. Headline PPI increased +1.7% YoY, with core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade, rising +3.3%.
• Unemployment benefits claims in the US edged up by +2,000 to 230,000 in the week ending September 7th, missing expectations for a drop to 226,000, hinting at a softer labor market.
• The ECB cut its key interest rates as expected, marking the second reduction this year after June. New rates are 3.65% for main refinancing, 3.90% for the marginal lending facility, and 3.50% for the deposit facility.
• In Asia, Japan’s PPI climbed by 2.5% YoY in August, below the expected 2.8% and down from 3% in July, signaling a slowdown in input costs. Meanwhile, the central bank has indicated plans to hike interest rates further in the coming months.
• Global bond yields rose on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield climbed by +3.9 bps to 2.15%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield were up by 2.0 bps to 3.78%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed +1.3 bps higher to 0.87%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of local currency government bond edged lower on September 12, with the 10-yr benchmark yield slightly down by -0.1 bps to 6.58%, while the 5-yr yield rose by +0.8 bps to 6.47%.
• Meanwhile, government bond prices generally fell, leading to higher yields across most maturities. The 2-yr bond experienced the biggest yield increase, rising by +2.5 bps to 6.48%. Conversely, the 1-yr bond yield declined by -5.13 bps to 6.37%.
• The IDR weakened against the USD on Thursday, with USD/IDR rising by +0.19% to 15,430 following a +0.07% rise in the dollar index to 101.76, according to Bloomberg data.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, PBS032, FR0100, and FR0097 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.51 trillion, IDR2.10 trillion, and IDR1.99 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, PBS038, FR0091, FR0102, and FR0100 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast
 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0074, FR0075, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR74 FR75 FR92

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