Beranda

RESEARCH

Company Update

02 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 2, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street closed higher on August 30, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq surged by +0.55%, +1.01%, and  +1.13% respectively.
• US stocks rose on Friday, with the Dow Jones hitting a new all-time high. Gains were driven by positive corporate results from Intel and Marvel Technology, both up over 9%, along with favorable US July core PCE and personal spending data.
• The 10-year and 2-year UST yields increased by 4.0 bps to 3.91%. T-notes prices declined further after strong US economic data dimmed hopes for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September, though month-end buying by bond fund managers extending duration offered some support.
• The US July core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, remained at +2.6% YoY (+0.2% MoM) for the third consecutive month, beating expectations of +2.7% YoY.
• US personal spending increased by +0.5% MoM in July 2024, in line with expectations, following a +0.3% MoM gain in June. Personal income rose +0.3% MoM, up from June’s +0.2% MoM and above the forecast of +0.2% MoM.
• The Eurozone's unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to a record low of 6.4% in July 2024, down from 6.5% in June and better than the expected 6.5%, highlighting a stronger labor market in Europe.
• In Asia, Japan's retail sales increased by 2.6% YoY in July 2024, down from 3.8% in June and below the 2.9% forecast. Nonetheless, retail sales have remained positive since March 2022, supported by rising wages.
• Global bond yields moved higher on Friday: the 10-yr German bund yield up +2.4 bps to 2.29%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield down -0.4 bps to 4.01%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB nearly flat -0.1 bps to 0.90%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian series of local currency government bonds traded mixed on August 30, with the 10-yr yield edging up by +0.9 bps to 6.62%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -2.8 bps to 6.41%.
• The IDR depreciated against the USD on the last trading day of August, with the USD/IDR rising by +0.26% to 15,455. The rupiah weakened as the DXY rose by +0.07% to 101.41, driven by stronger-than-expected US 2Q24 economic data, which dampened hopes for a Fed rate cut in September.
• Bank Indonesia reported that from August 26-29, 2024, non-residents recorded net purchases totaling IDR6.21 trillion.  This included net buys of IDR3.89 trillion in the stock market, IDR1.56 trillion in the SRBI, and IDR0.76 trillion in the SBN market.
• The government will conduct SUN auctions in local currencies on Tuesday, aiming for an indicative target of IDR22tn. The auctions will feature new issuances of SPN03241204 and SPN12250904, as well as the reopening of FR104, FR0103, FR0098, FR0097, and FR102. We anticipate the bid-to-cover ratio to range between 1.7 and 2.9.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0101, and FR0081 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.77 trillion, IDR1.97 trillion, and IDR1.46 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, PBS038, and FR0081 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0056, FR0099, FR0074. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR56 FR99 FR74

Back Download PDF
Copyright © 2024 MNC Sekuritas. All Right Reserved. A Member of MNC Group