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RESEARCH

Company Update

20 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 20, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street closed higher on September 19, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq surged by +1.26%, +1.70% and +2.51%, respectively.
• Stocks surged on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones setting new all-time highs, and the Nasdaq climbing to a 2-month high. The rally came after the Fed's aggressive -50 bp rate cut on Wednesday, along with expectations for another -50 bp cut this year, sparking risk-on sentiment and hopes for a soft landing.
• The 10-yr UST yield rose by +3.0 bps to 3.73%, while the 2-yr yield fell by -2.0 bps to 3.59. T-notes came under pressure as US jobless claims fell to a 4-month low, signaling labor market strength and a hawkish Fed outlook. They later recovered after August existing home sales dropped to a 10-month low.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 12,000 to 219,000 for the week ending September 14th, the lowest in four months and better than the expected 230,000.
• Existing home sales in the U.S. fell -2.5% MoM in August, reaching a 10-month low of 3.86 million, which was weaker than the anticipated 3.90 million.
• In Europe, The Bank of England decided to keep the Bank Rate at 5% during its September 2024 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August—the first rate reduction in more than four years. This outcome matched market forecasts.
• In Asia, Japan's annual inflation rate increased to 3.0% YoY in August 2024, up from 2.8% YoY over the past three months. Core inflation hit a six-month high of 2.8% YoY, rising for the fourth straight month and matching the median market forecast.
• Global bond yields moved higher on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield edged up by +0.8 bps to 2.20%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose by +4.5 bps to 3.89%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB advanced by +2.2 bps to 0.85%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• Indonesian local currency government bond yields fell on Thursday, with the 10-yr benchmark yield down by -0.7 bps to 6.53%, and the 5-year yield down by -10.7 bps to 6.28%. Furthermore, nearly all tenors saw declines, with the 2-yr, 6-yr, and 4-yr falling the most by -10.4 bps, -10.2 bps, and -8.2 bps, respectively.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Thursday, with USD/IDR fell by -0.66% to 15,238, following a minor -0.01% drop in the dollar index to 100.59.
• Indonesia's external debt reached USD414.3 billion in July 2024, growing +4.1% YoY. This includes government debt of USD194.3 billion (+0.6% YoY) and private sector debt of USD195.2 billion (-0.1% YoY). The debt-to-GDP ratio is 30.2%, with long-term debt comprising 84.9% of the total.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0101, and FR0087 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.66 trillion, IDR3.65 trillion, and IDR3.11 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, FR0091, FR0087 and PBS038 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.45-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0075, FR0083, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR75 FR83 FR92

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