Beranda

RESEARCH

Company Update

23 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 23, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street ended mixed on September 20, with the DJIA closed up by +0.09%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down by -0.19% and -0.36%, respectively.
• Stocks mostly fell on Friday, paring Thursday’s gains. The Dow Jones edged up as Intel climbed over 3% and Nike surged more than 6%. However, weakness in chip stocks weighed on the broader market. Stocks rebounded after dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, noting core PCE is rising at +1.8%, below the Fed's 2% target.
• The 10-yr UST yield stayed flat at 3.73% on Friday, while the 2-yr yield fell by -4.0 bps to 3.55. T-notes recovered from early losses due to short covering sparked by dovish remarks from Fed’s Waller. However, supply pressures and negative carryover from European bond weakness weighed on prices.
• The Central Bank balance sheet in the US decreased to USD7.11 million on September 18, down from USD7.12 million the previous week. This phased approach following rate cuts may indicate a complex and nuanced monetary policy strategy that warrants close monitoring.
• Euro Area consumer confidence rose by +0.5 points to -12.9 in September 2024, exceeding market expectations of -13. This marks the highest level since February 2022, reflecting improved sentiment after ECB's rate cuts.
• In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its key lending rates steady in September, with the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.35% and the five-year rate at 3.85%, aligning with market estimates.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Friday: the 10-yr German bund yield rose by +1.8 bps to 2.21%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose by +1.1 bps to 3.90%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB edged down by -0.1 bps to 0.85%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• Indonesian local currency government bond yields declined on Friday, with the 10-year benchmark yield tumbling -11.7 bps to 6.42%, and the 5-year yield dipping -7.9 bps to 6.20%. Yields across all tenors fell simultaneously, signaling a strong buying spree in the government bond market. The 1-yr, 2-yr, and 3-yr yields saw the largest drops, falling by -11.7 bps, -11.6 bps, and -9.2 bps, respectively.
• The SRBI auction on Friday attracted higher demand, with total bids reaching IDR46.0 trillion, up from IDR33.8 trillion in the last auction. Bank Indonesia awarded IDR19.0 trillion in winning bids, up from IDR10.0 trillion previously, with rates falling between 6.72-6.84%.
• The IDR gained further against the USD on Friday, with USD/IDR fell by -0.58% to 15,150, while the dollar index climbed +0.18% to 100.79.
• Bank Indonesia reported that non-residents recorded net purchases of IDR25.60 trillion from September 17-19, 2024. This comprised net buys of IDR4.19 trillion in the stock market, IDR1.66 trillion in the SRBI and IDR19.76 trillion in the SBN market.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0103, FR0101, and FR0098 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR4.39 trillion, IDR3.96 trillion, and IDR2.59 trillion, respectively. Additionally, FR100, FR0102, PBS032, FR0087 and FR0091 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.45-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0084, FR0099, FR0075, FR0083. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR84 FR99 FR75 FR83

Back Download PDF
Copyright © 2024 MNC Sekuritas. All Right Reserved. A Member of MNC Group