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Company Update

25 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 25, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street extended gains on September 24, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed up by +0.20%, +0.25%, and +0.56%, respectively.
• The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached record highs on Tuesday, buoyed by China's substantial stimulus announcement and a dip in US consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Bowman on Tuesday, the sole dissent in last week's 50 bps cut, pressured stocks. 
• The 10-yr UST yield lowered by +1.0 bps to 3.74%, and the 2-yr yield dipped by -8.0 bps to 3.49. T-notes reversed early losses Tuesday, driven by weaker-than-expected September consumer confidence and a Richmond Fed manufacturing outlook at a 4.5-year low of -21.
• The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city index in the US climbed 5.9% YoY in July 2024, down from the 6.5% increase in June, marking the slowest growth in eight months.
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August, missing expectations of a rise 104.0, marking the largest drop since August 2021.
• In Europe, the Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany fell to 85.4 in September 2024, down from 86.6 in August. This marks the lowest reading since January and is below expectations of 86.
• In Asia, the au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.6 in September 2024, slightly down from 49.8 in the prior month, and below the 49.9 consensus estimate, marking continued weakness in Japan's manufacturing sector for the third straight month.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Tuesday, with the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -0.9 bps to 2.14%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield closed up by +1.8 bps to 3.94%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed down -3.4 bps to 0.82%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• Indonesian LCY government bond yields were mixed on Tuesday, with the 10-yr benchmark yield declining by -0.3 bps to 6.43%, while the 5-year yield rose +0.6 bps to 6.18%. Overall, the declines was limited compared to the previous day, with the 1-yr, 6-yr, and 7-yr yields decreased by -2.7 bps, -1.6 bps, and -1.0 bps, respectively.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Tuesday, with USD/IDR fell by -0.10% to 15,185, while the dollar index edged down -0.06% to 100.79.
• The SBSN auction on Tuesday attracted higher demand, with total bids reaching IDR32.34 trillion, up from the previous IDR21.27 trillion. PBS038 received the highest awarded bids of IDR4.25 trillion at a weighted average yield of 6.87% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.40. The total awarded amount for the auction was IDR10.00 trillion.
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, PBS038, FR0104, and PBS032 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR5.10 trillion, IDR3.43 trillion, and IDR2.94 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, PBS038, FR0100, FR0091 and FR0102 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.45-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0099, FR0083, FR0092, FR0076. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR84 FR99 FR83 FR92 FR76

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