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Company Update

26 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 26, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street ended mixed on September 25, with the DJIA fell by -0.70%, and the S&P 500 declined by -0.19%, while Nasdaq edged up by +0.04%.
• US equities retreated from earlier highs on Wednesday, with major indexes closing mixed as investors debated economic conditions and the possibility of a significant rate cut. Equities faced selling pressure as higher T-note yields and negative corporate reports weighed on the market.
• The 10-yr UST yield surged by +5.0 bps to 3.79%, and the 2-yr yield grew by +4.0 bps to 3.53%. Supply pressures weighed on T-notes Wednesday as the Treasury auctioned USD70 billion in 5-yr T-notes and USD28 billion in 2-yr floating-rate notes.
• US MBA mortgage applications jumped +11.0% for the week ending September 20, as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped by 2.0 bps to 6.13%, marking a 2-year low.
• The new home sales in the US declined by -4.7% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000 in August 2024. This decline followed a revised 10.3% increase in July but still exceeded market expectations of 700,000 sales.
• Meanwhile, US building permits advanced by +4.6% MoM in August 2024 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.47 million, reversing a -3.3% MoM drop to 1.41 million in July. 
• In Asia, The PBoC slashed its one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 30 bps to 2.0% on September 25th, down from 2.3% in August. Investors welcomed this proactive measure to boost China’s sluggish economy, which may also benefit emerging markets, including Indonesia.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Wednesday, with the 10-yr German bund yield rose by +2.8 bps to 2.17%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield closed up by +4.9 bps to 3.99%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB edged down -0.1 bps to 0.82%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• Indonesian local currency government bond yields were mixed on Wednesday. The 10-year benchmark yield fell by -0.9 bps to 6.42%, while the 5-year yield dropped -2.9 bps to 6.16%. Short-term tenors saw the most significant declines, with yields on 1- to 4-year bonds falling between 1 and 3 bps.
• The IDR extended gains against the USD on Wednesday, with USD/IDR falling by -0.56% to 15,100. The Rupiah strengthened amid strong domestic bond buying, while the dollar index edged down -0.08% to 100.38.
• The 2025 State Budget (APBN) sees an increase in funding for President-elect Prabowo Subianto's Quick Win program, growing from IDR113 trillion to IDR121 trillion, including IDR8 trillion specifically set aside for tuberculosis eradication.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0104, and FR0103 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR4.19 trillion, IDR3.78 trillion, and IDR2.09 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, PBS038, FR0102 and FR0091 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.40-6.55% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0099, FR0074, FR0083, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR84 FR99 FR74 FR83 FR92

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