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Company Update

27 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 27, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street posted gains on September 26, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed up by +0.62%, +0.40%, +0.60%, respectively.
• The stock market rallied Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high and the Nasdaq reaching a 2-1/4 month high, led by chip stocks. Micron Technology surged +14% on strong sales and profit guidance. Indexes later pulled back as rising T-note yields, driven by strong Q2 GDP and jobless claims data, hinted at a more hawkish Fed.
• The 10-yr UST yield remained steady at 3.79%, while the 2-yr yield climbed by +7.0 bps to 3.60%. The 10-yr and 2-yr yield spread widened by 19 bps post-Fed meeting, with the “bear steepener” reflecting market anticipation of higher inflation.
• The US economy expanded as anticipated in Q2 2024, with the final GDP growth rate rising at an annualized +3.0%, up from +1.4% in the previous quarter.
• Unemployment claims in the US decreased by -4,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 21st, surpassing forecasts of 225,000 and reaching a 4-month low.
• Eurozone M3 money supply grew to +2.9% YoY in August 2024, up from +2.3% YoY in July, with a three-month average of 2.5%, the highest rise in 19 months. .
• In Asia, Tokyo's CPI in Japan fell to 2.20% in September 2024, down from 2.60% in August. The core consumer price index increased by 2.00% YoY.
• Global bond yields moved higher on Thursday, with the 10-yr German bund yield up by +0.8 bps to 2.18%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield rose by +2.0 bps to 4.01%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed up +1.7 bps to 0.83%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• Indonesian local currency government bond yields showed mixed movements on Thursday. The 10-yr yield rose by +1.6 bps to 6.44%, while the 1-yr yield dropped -6.6 bps to 6.15%. Most SBN yields moved upward, indicating selling pressure that weighed on bond prices. The 2-yr, 20-yr, and 15-yr tenors posted the biggest increases, climbing by +5.0 bps, +4.7 bps, and +3.6 bps, respectively.  
• The IDR weakened against the USD on Thursday, with USD/IDR falling by -0.42% to 15,165. Selling pressure in the stock market and bonds market reverse last week’s buying positions, weighing the Rupiah, as the dollar index inched up +0.03% to 100.94.
• The government will conduct SUN auctions in local currencies Tuesday, aiming for an indicative target of IDR22tn. The auctions will feature new issuances of SPN03250101 and SPN12251002, and reopenings of FR104, FR0103, FR0098, FR0097, and FR102. We anticipate the bid-to-cover ratio to range between 1.7 and 3.2.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0097, PBS032, and FR0100 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.70 trillion, IDR2.66 trillion, and IDR2.60 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, FR0091, FR0097 and PBS038 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.45-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0099, FR0074, FR0083, FR0097. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR84 FR99 FR74 FR83 FR97

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