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RESEARCH

Company Update

30 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 30, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street ended mixed on September 27, with the DJIA closed up by +0.33%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down by -0.13% and -0.39%, respectively.
• The Dow Jones reached a record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower. Softer US spending and income data, along with the expected core PCE, lowered T-note yields, supporting stocks. However, a dip in chip stocks dragged the Nasdaq and broader market lower.
• The 10-yr UST yield fell by -4.0 bps to 3.75%, while the 2-yr yield slidby -5.0 bps to 3.55%. T-notes rose on weak August US spending and income data, with core PCE in line with expectations. Gains faded after September’s consumer sentiment was revised higher.
• The US PCE price index rose 2.2% YoY in August 2024, its lowest since February 2021, down from 2.5% YoY in July 2024 and below the 2.3% forecast. Conversely, the core PCE edged up to 2.7% YoY from 2.6% YoY.
• US personal spending rose by 0.2% MoM in August 2024, down from 0.5% in July and just below the 0.3% forecast. Personal income also increased 0.2% MoM, following a 0.3% rise in July, missing expectations of 0.4%.
• Meanwhile, Eurozone economic sentiment remained broadly stable, edged down to 96.2 in September 2024 from 96.5 in August, the highest in over a year, and slightly below the 96.5 forecast.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Friday, with the 10-yr German bund yield declined by -5.0 bps to 2.13%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield fell by -3.3 bps to 3.97%, while the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed up +2.2 bps to 0.85%.

Domestic Market Updates
 
• Indonesian local currency govt bond yields moved lower on Friday, with the 10-yr yield falling by -0.5 bps to 6.44%, while the 2-yr yield easing by -0.3 bps to 6.19%. The steepest declines occurred in the 1-yr, 5-yr, and 8-yr tenors, dropping by -6.9 bps, -2.7 bps, and -1.2 bps, respectively.  
• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Friday, with USD/IDR falling by -0.27% to 15,125, while the dollar index edged down by -0.03% to 100.53.
• The SRBI auction on Friday showed weaker demand, with total bids falling to IDR22.06 trillion from IDR46.04 trillion in the prior auction. Bank Indonesia maintained awarded IDR19.0 trillion in winning bids, unchanged from the last auction, while the 12-month SRBI discount rate eased to 6.81% from 6.85%.
• Bank Indonesia reported a non-resident net sell of IDR9.73 trillion from September 23-26, 2024, which consisted of net sell of IDR2.88 trillion in the stock market, IDR5.55 trillion in the SRBI and IDR1.30 trillion in the SBN.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101, FR0080, and FR0100 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.52 trillion, IDR2.48 trillion, and IDR2.46 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0091, FR0100, FR0087 and FR0102 were the most frequently traded series. 
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.45-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0084, FR0099, FR0074, FR0083, FR0097. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR84 FR99 FR74 FR83 FR97

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