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Company Update

06 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 6, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street closed mixed on September 5, as the DJIA fell by -0.54%, the S&P 500 decreased by -0.30% and the Nasdaq closed up by +0.25%.
• Stocks mostly fell on Thursday, with the S&P 500 reaching a 2-week low and the Dow Jones hitting a 2,5 week low. The market was pressured by weak US labor market data, as the August ADP employment report indicated the smallest job increase, heightening growth concerns.
• The 10-yr UST yield fell by -4.0 bps to 3.73%, while the 2-yr yield edged down by -1.0 bps to 3.75%. T-note prices rose on Thursday after the August ADP employment change showed the smallest increase in 3,5 years. T-notes also gained support from upward revisions to Q2 productivity and downward revisions to unit labor costs.
• The US ADP employment report for August showed an increase of 99,000 jobs, down from 111,000 in July and well below expectations of 145,000.
• The ISM Services PMI in the US rose slightly to 51.5 in August 2024 from 51.4 in July, surpassing expectations of a drop to 51.1.
• Retail sales in the Euro Area increased by +0.10% MoM in July 2024, up from a decline of -0.4% MoM in June (Trading Economics).
• The S&P Global UK Construction PMI declined to 53.6 in August 2024 from 55.3 in July, missing expectations of 54.9. While the overall construction activity continued to expand, the pace of growth slowed slightly (S&P Global).
• Global bond yields moved lower on Thursday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -1.6 bps to 2.20%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield decreased by -2.0 bps to 3.92%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed down by -0.4 bps to 0.88%.
 
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian series of local currency government bond moved higher on September 5, with the 10-yr yield decreased by -3.2 bps to 6.62%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +0.5 bps to 6.45%.
• Investor appetite for government bonds remained strong, driving yields lower across the curve. The 7-yr yield experienced the largest drop, falling by -4.0 bps. The 1-yr and 5-yr yields followed suit, with declines of -3.9 and -3.4 bps, respectively.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Thursday, with USD/IDR falling by -0.50% to IDR15,398 as the DXY weakened by -0.16 % to 101.20.  
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0103, and FR0101 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR3.98 trillion, IDR3.16 trillion, and IDR2.04 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and PBS038 were the most frequently traded series.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0099, FR0087, FR0074, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR99 FR87 FR74 FR92

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