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Company Update

09 September 2024

Fixed Income Report September 9, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street closed in the red on September 6, as the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down by -1.01%, -1.73%, -2.55%, respectively.
• Stocks tumbled on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling to a 3,5 week low, the Dow Jones sliding to a 3-week low, and the Nasdaq dropping to a 4-week low. The market was dragged down by weakness in chip stocks, led by a -10% plunge in Broadcom and a -4% drop in Nvidia, alongside a broader slump in megacap tech stocks.
• The 10-yr UST yield fell by -1.0 bps to 3.72%, while the 2-yr yield dipped -9.0 bps to 3.66%. T-note prices rallied Friday as August nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations and July payrolls were revised lower. Lower inflation expectations also supported T-notes, with the 10-year breakeven rate slid to a 1-month low of 2.03%.
• US August nonfarm payrolls increased by +142,000, below expectations of +165,000. Additionally, July nonfarm payrolls were revised down to +89,000 from the initially reported +114,000. However, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected.
• In Europe, Germany's trade surplus narrowed to EUR16.8 billion in July 2024 from EUR 20.4 billion in June. Exports increased by +1.7% MoM, recovering from a 3.4% drop in June, while imports grew by +5.4% MoM following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in June.
• In Asia, China's foreign exchange reserves rose by USD31.8 billion to USD3.288 trillion in August 2024, up from USD3.256 trillion in July, slightly below the forecast of USD3.29 trillion.
• Global bond yields moved lower on Friday: the 10-yr German bund yield fell by -3.6 bps to 2.17%, the 10-yr UK gilt yield declined by -2.9 bps to 3.88%, and the 10-yr Japanese JGB closed down by -2.6 bps to 0.85%.

Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian series of local currency government bond were mixed on September 6, with the 10-yr yield declined by -2.2 bps to 6.60%, while the 2-yr yield rose by +1.2 bps to 6.45%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD on Friday, with USD/IDR falling by -0.21% to IDR15,365 as the DXY weakened by -0.12 % to 100.99.  
• Indonesia’s forex reserves rose by USD4.8 billion to a record high of USD150.2 billion in August 2024, up from USD145.4 billion in July. The increase was driven by oil and gas export receipts, tax and service revenues, and the government's foreign loan withdrawals.
• Bank Indonesia reported that from September 2-5, 2024, non-residents recorded net sales totaling IDR2.49 trillion. This included net buys of IDR2.65 trillion in the SBN market and IDR2.24 trillion in the stock market, while net sales amounted IDR7.38 trillion in the SRBI.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100, FR0065, and FR0101 attracted notable interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR2.55 trillion, IDR1.39 trillion, and IDR1.06 trillion, respectively. Additionally, PBS032, FR0100, and PBS038 were the most frequently traded series.

Market Forecast
 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.75% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0099, FR0087, FR0074, FR0092. 
 
 
 Disclaimer On

FR81 FR99 FR87 FR74 FR92

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