Key Takeaways
• Indonesia’s economy grew 5.02% YoY in 4Q21 and 3.69% YoY in FY21 slightly in line with our forecast.
• Indonesia recovered from pandemic with a ‘Nike Swoosh’ pattern driven by : 1) improving economic activity that boost consumption and 2) higher commodity prices that propelled exports and investment in FY21.
• Indonesia officially stroke by 3rd wave outbreak since the beginning of 2022.
• We built a logistic growth model to depict the trajectory of the 3rd wave using India as the proxy country due to similarities in epidemiologic and demographic data.
• Results from our model : assuming carrying capacity of Covid-19 at 2-2.5% with and without proper intervention, it will take 60-77 days to complete the phase with cumulative cases at 5.24- 6.77mn and peak of daily cases in WII/WIII Feb-22 at 42,185-72,133 cases per day.
• Indeed domestic economy to be affected in 1Q22 due to mobility restriction amid tightening. However we still believe that growth story to remain intact as people are more adapted to living with pandemic causing economy to be less sensitive to changing in mobility.
Disclaimer On
