MNCS Morning Navigator

04 Mei 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator 04 May 2021

Global Market Highlight

DJIA rose by +0.70% on Monday (03/05) followed by S&P 500 (+0.27%) while Nasdaq fell by -0.48. Wall Street closed higher as signs of a more rapid economic reopening pushed up cyclicals including energy and materials. Energy led gains supported by rising oil prices on the recovery of global demand even though the Covid-19 cases in India continued to increase. On the other hand, several states will lift their social restrictions this month. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Balance of Trade; 2) US ISM New York Index ; 3) Canada Balance of Trade.


Domestic Update

• The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI rose to a new record high of 54.6 in April 2021 from 53.2 in March 2021. While new export orders returned to growth following a 16-month period of decline. Selling prices went up for the sixth straight month, with the rate of inflation slowing for the second month running to the weakest since January  (Trading Economics).

• BPS released Indonesia's annual inflation accelerated slightly to 1.42% YoY in April of 2021, the highest since January and compared to forecasts of 1.46%, mainly due to a faster rise in prices of food, drinks and tobacco (2.33% vs 2.22%) and transport (1.01% vs 0.59%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate declined to 1.18% YoY, the lowest since the series began in 2008 and compared to forecasts of 1.22%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 0.13% MoM in April (BPS).

• Furthermore, there was an addition of 757 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.


Company News

1. ANTM IJ posted revenue of IDR9.21 trillion in 1Q21, an increase of 77.04% YoY (vs IDR5.20 trillion in 1Q20). ANTM's revenue was dominated by gold sales which reached IDR6.58 trillion, an increase of 65% YoY, followed by the ferronickel and nickel ore segments with IDR1.23 trillion and IDR950 billion. However, the cost of revenue also increased from IDR4.64 trillion in 1Q20 to IDR7.58 trillion in 1Q21. ANTM posted a net profit of IDR630.37 billion in 1Q21 which increased 324% YoY (vs IDR281.84 billion from 1Q20 net loss) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The +65.79% YoY increase in gold sales followed by +34.61% YoY growth on ferronickel sales have improved the top line. Moreover, the 80.28% YoY drop on finance cost has helped improve ANTM's bottom line. Currently ANTM is trading at 52.69x/3.18x PE/PBV.

2. ADHI IJ posted a new contract value of IDR2.2 trillion in 1Q21 or decreased -30.91% YoY (vs IDR3.06 trillion in 1Q20). With this value ADHI has realized the target of 8.8% this year. The new contracts obtained by ADHI in Mar-2021 consist of construction & energy (88%), property (11%), and other businesses (1%). So that ADHI's net profit fell -26.25% YoY to IDR6.74 billion in 1Q21 (vs IDR9.14 billion in 1Q20) (Bisnis Indonesia).MNCS Comment: We assess this achievement due to several things, one of which is that the government is still postponing several tenders. However, we believe there will be an improvement in the contract value in FY21E. ADHI is currently trading at 170.79x/0.74x PE/PBV.

3. INTP IJ posted revenue of IDR3.43 trillion in 1Q21, an increase of + 2.26% YoY (vs IDR3.36 trillion in 1Q20). INTP's revenue was driven by sales to third parties, namely cement sales worth IDR3.15 trillion, ready mix concrete sales valued at IDR238.48 billion, and aggregate sales valued at IDR97 million. Meanwhile, sales to related parties reached IDR48.21 billion, which was the result of cement sales. However, cost of revenue also increased + 1.7% to IDR2.33 trillion 1Q21. INTP posted a net profit of IDR351.31 billion in 1Q21 which decreased -12.26% YoY (vs IDR400.43 billion in 1Q20) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was in line with the increase in cement sales of INTP in 1Q21 by 4 million tonnes (2.5% YoY), however the efficiency of the cost of production was still not successful, resulting in a decline in the bottom line. INTP is trading at 25.58/2.08x PE/PBV.


IHSG Updates

JCI dropped by -0.72% to 5,952.60 on Monday (03/05) followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR106.45 billion. JCI reflected the weakening of the previous global indices closing, despite the bright economic data releases. Only property remains strong while the rest of the sectors fell. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was strengthening at IDR14,450. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 5,920-6,030 while waiting for the 1Q21 GDP growth rate data release. Today's recommendation: ASII, TLKM, MEDC, BBNI.


Corporate Action

Cum Dividend Date: ADRO (IDR66.5/share)


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