MNCS Morning Navigator

05 Mei 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator 05 May 2021

Global Market Highlight

DJIA rose by +0.06% on Tuesday (04/05) followed by S&P 500 (-0.67%) and Nasdaq (-1.88%). Wall Street fell on selling in technology stocks and other growth stocks. On the other hand, there are still concerns about rising inflation, where the Fed may have to reduce monetary stimulus earlier and potential tax increases in the coming months. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; 2) US MBA Mortgage Applications; 3) US ADP Employment Change.


Domestic Update

• The Indonesian government has revised its projection for  economic growth in 2021, to 4% - 5% from the previous at 4.5-5.3%, due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, in the 1Q21, the Indonesian economy is still in a recession with estimated GDP growth of -0.6% to -0.9%. The economic reversal to positive will only be seen in the second quarter with 5.3%. Meanwhile in 3Q21 is estimated to grow by 6.7% and 6.8% in 4Q21 (CNBC Indonesia).

• Furthermore, there was an addition of 416 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.


Company News

1. BTPN IJ posted interest income of IDR2.78 trillion in 1Q21, down -4.46% YoY (vs IDR2.91 trillion in 1Q20). However, BTPN managed to suppress almost all expenses, so that the company's net operating income could grow to IDR1.39 trillion from the previous IDR1.16 trillion. BTPN posted a net profit of IDR971.08 billion in 1Q21 which increased + 29.11% YoY (vs IDR752.11 billion in 1Q20) (IQ PLUS).MNCS Comment: We estimate that a decrease in interest expense will occur along with an increase in CASA which results in a lower cost of funds. In addition, cross NPL is maintained at the level of 1.42%. Currently BTPN is trading at 5.96x/0.72x PE/PBV.

2. SMGR IJ posted revenue of IDR8.07 trillion in 1Q21, down -5.8% YoY (vs IDR8.58 trillion in 1Q20). However, cost of revenue also decreased from IDR5.87 trillion in 1Q20 to IDR5.77 trillion in 1Q21. SMGR posted a net profit of IDR450.36 billion in 1Q21 which increased by 0.87% YoY (vs IDR446.46 billion in 1Q20) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Even though the company's revenue decreased, the company was able to record an increase in net profit due to a decrease in cost of goods. Bagged cement sales increased by 116.40% YoY due to the property VAT incentive provided by the government, and the bagged cement sales support the revenue structure of SMGR. SMGR is currently trading at 21.35x/1.74x PE/PBV.

3. BJTM IJ will distribute FY20 cash dividends amounting to IDR48.20 / share or IDR733.50 billion of the total FY20 net profit of IDR1.49 trillion (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: BJTM  dividend payout ratio is 49.26% of FY20 net profit, while the dividend yield offered is 5.98%, this value is lower than FY19 yields which reached 9.54%. BJTM is trading at 6.74/1.15x PE/PBV.


IHSG Updates

JCI rose by +0.19% to 5,963.82 on Tuesday (04/05) followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR426.66 billion. JCI rebounded, supported by the increase in the financial, infrastructure and basic industry sector as sentiments lifted on global indices. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was strengthening at IDR14,430. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 5,920-6,030 while waiting for the 1Q21 GDP growth rate data release. Today's recommendation: LSIP, TINS, UNTR, BBCA.


Corporate Action

Cum Dividend Date: IPOL (IDR5/share), JAYA (IDR2/share), RAJA (IDR5.16/share)


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