MNCS Morning Navigator

11 Juni 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator 11 June 2021

Global Market Highlight
DJIA rose by +0.06% on Thursday (10/06) followed by S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.78%). Wall Street closed higher supported by labor market recovery and increased US consumer prices in May-2021 leading to the biggest annual increase in nearly 13 years. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the health sector led the highest gains. On the other hand, the financial sector weakened due to easing US Treasury yields. The market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel; 2) UK GDP 3-Month Avg; 3) UK GDP YoY.


Domestic Update
As of yesterday (10/06) daily Covid-19 infections in Indonesia increased to 8,892 cases, the highest since March. MNCS Comment: The uptrend in infection cases started to occur in the third week of May. This coincides with the higher public mobility during Lebaran. Rising cases will only bring a downside risk for Indonesia’s economic recovery, as we know that the government experienced difficulties in finding the right balance between controlling outbreak vs stimulating the economy so far.
Indonesia retail sales booked a positive growth in April by 17.3% MoM and 15.6% YoY, significantly higher than previous month (+6.1% MoM & -14.6% YoY). It was the first yearly positive growth in the last 16 months. MNCS Comment: The increase was mainly due to rising fashion, groceries, tobacco products as well as fuel sales. The April incremental sales in line with our expectation bolstered by 1) fasting & lebaran momentum; 2) price discount and 3) THR transfer for civil servants & private employees. We expect May’s retail sales to remain in a positive trajectory although there will be some moderation.
Furthermore, there was an addition of 2,096 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

Company News
1. CTRA IJ posted marketing sales of IDR2.8 trillion in 1Q21 or up +89% YoY. With this achievement, CTRA has realized 47.70% of the FY21E marketing sales target of IDR5.87 trillion (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: The sale of housing in Jabodetabek has had a fairly good impact, especially since CTRA has residential properties that are ready to be sold, thereby benefiting from PPnBM incentives. CTRA is trading at 19.35x/1.21x PE/PBV.

2. MIKA IJ will distribute FY20 cash dividends of around IDR36/share or reaching IDR512.56 billion of the total FY20 net profit of IDR841.67 billion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: MIKA's dividend distribution ratio is 60.9% of FY20 net profit, while the dividend yield offered is 1.47%, this value is higher than FY19's yield of 0.88%. MIKA is currently trading at 27.47x/6.64x PE/PBV.

3. LINK IJ will distribute FY20 cash dividends of around IDR102.7/share or reaching IDR282.58 billion from the total FY20 net profit of IDR941.7 billion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: LINK's dividend distribution ratio is 30% of FY20 net profit, while the offered dividend yield is 2.28%, this value is lower than FY19 yield of 7.36%. Currently LINK is trading at 12.93x/2.64x PE/PBV levels.


IHSG Updates
JCI rose by +0.99% to 6,107.54 on Thursday (10/06) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR45.02 billion. JCI rose as most sectors strengthened, led by tech (+9.06%), finance (+1.64%), and cyclical (+0.93%). On the other hand, basic industry and property fell. JCI strengthened due to data on Indonesia's consumer confidence index rising to 104.4 in May-2021. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was strengthening at IDR14,248. We estimate JCI will move the range of 6.090-6.120 while waiting for Balance of Trade data release. Today's recommendation: AGRO, AKRA, INCO, PWON.


Corporate Action
Cum Dividend Date: BBMD (IDR29.79/share)
Public Expose: FPNI, TMAS


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