11 Mei 2021
MNCS Morning Navigator 11 May 2021
Global Market Highlight
DJIA slipped by -0.10% on Monday (10/05) followed by S&P 500 (-1.04%) and Nasdaq (-2.55%). Wall Street dip as falling tech stocks dragged the market lower. The rotation from tech to economically sensitive cyclicals areas of the market continued as investors avoid longer-duration growth stocks amid ongoing inflation pressures and worries about an eventual Fed decision. As the quarterly earnings season draws to a close, investors continued to digest quarterly earnings from corporates. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US President Biden Remarks on the Economy; 2) China Inflation Rate; 3) China New Yuan Loans.
Domestic Update
• BI released the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) for April 2021 which stood at 101.5. The number has entered the optimistic zone (>100), an increase compared to 93.4 in March 2021. Based on the consumer survey results, the increase in consumer optimism in April 2021 was driven by improvement in consumer expectations of future economic conditions, namely the aspect of job availability, increased business activity expansion, and increased income in the next 6 months.
• The Minister of Finance plans to increase the value-added tax (VAT) rate in order to increase state revenue. During 2016 to 2019, the average growth of VAT and Luxury Goods Tax was 8.8% per year. With the increase in the VAT rate has the potential to reduce the level of public consumption and thus have an impact on inflation.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 694 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.
Company News
1. MAPI IJ posted revenue of IDR4.31 trillion in 1Q21, down -8.68% YoY (vs IDR4.72 trillion in 1Q20). However, COGS also fell from IDR2.55 trillion in 1Q20 to IDR2.51 trillion in 1Q21. MAPI posted a net profit of IDR26.08 billion in 1Q21 which increased + 222.91% YoY (vs IDR8.07 billion in 1Q20) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: We see that people's interest in spending has begun to appear in 1Q21, considering that in the same period last year there was the deepest decline in sales in the midst of the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. MAPI is trading at 120.90/2.34x PE/PBV.
2. SSMS IJ posted revenue of IDR1.08 trillion in 1Q21, an increase of + 17.59% YoY (vs IDR918.39 billion in 1Q20). Cost of goods sold also increased from IDR483.39 billion in 1Q20 to IDR594.97 billion in 1Q21. SSMS posted a net profit of IDR174.11 billion in 1Q21 (vs a loss of IDR338.17 billion 1Q20) (IQ Plus). MNCS Comment: We believe SSMS is being benefited from the roaring CPO price which has recently reach MYR4,400/mt. The reference price is already higher and boost both top and bottom line. We think that SSMS would be able to keep up it's performance through the year. SSMS is currently trading at 12.92/1.79x PE/PBV.
3. AGII IJ posted revenue of IDR642.70 billion in 1Q21, increase +18.05% YoY (vs IDR 544.43 billion in 1Q20). Cost of revenue also increased from IDR297.78 billion in 1Q20 to IDR347.09 billion in 1Q21. AGII recorded a net profit of IDR49.37 billion 1Q21, increase +160.25% YoY (vs IDR18.97 billion in 1Q20) (IQ Plus). MNCS Comment: This realization was due to the government's massive vaccination in 1Q21, requiring vaccine storage services. We believe that this trend will continue throughout FY21. Currently AGII is trading at 17.16x/1.00x PE/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI rose by +0.80% to 5,975.79 on Monday (10/05) followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR283.45 billion. JCI strengthened along with the rise of most commodities which surge the commodity stocks. Transportations, consumer non-cyclical, basic materials and energy stocks led the rise on JCI. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was strengthening at IDR14,198. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 5,883-6,030 while waiting for Retail Sales data release. Today's recommendation: ICBP, ITMG, AALI, MEDC.
Corporate Action
Cum Dividend Date: BJTM(IDR48.85/share), SOHO (IDR236/share)
Public Expose: TDPM
Disclaimer On
ICBP,
ITMG,
AALI,
MEDC,
MAPI,
SSMS,
AGII
