Global Market Highlight
DJIA was closed on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. On the other hand, the results of a survey conducted by Morgan Stanley's E-Trade Financial Survey showed that the majority of investors saw that the US stock market is approaching a bubble. Some of the factors that make investors still bullish are the economic recovery, the mass vaccinations that have been started, and the fiscal stimulus that will be released by US President-elect Biden, worth USD1.9 trillion. This indicates that the sentiment of market players is still good, so that the opportunity for strengthening the stock market is still wide open. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) China Foreign Direct Investment; 2) Germany Inflation Rate; 3) Hong Kong Unemployment Rate.
Domestic Update
• BI released the results of a survey on demand for corporate banking financing which recorded a Weighted Net Balance (WNB) of 13.9% in December 2020, higher than 12.1% in November 2020. This figure is the highest in the last 5 months. Most of the respondents stated that the increased need for financing was mainly to support operational activities.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 2,361 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.
Company News
1. TINS IJ will allocate capital expenditure of Rp1.9 trillion FY21E, up from the previous Rp1.5 trillion FY20. The plan is that the funds will be used for investment costs in TINS and its subsidiaries with a percentage of 94% and 6%. In addition, TINS targets more than 50,000 tons of FY21E metal production, with sales of around 92% of production (Kontan) MNCS Comment: We hope the 27% YoY increase on capex would help TINS improve its performance in FY21E, though we believe the increase on tin price has been quite beneficial in FY20. Currently TINS is trading at -47.22x/3.29x PE/PBV.
2. BBRI IJ targets the value of lending in FY21E to reach IDR1,000 trillion. This target is up from the FY20 credit realization of IDR880 trillion. BBRI believes this target can be achieved with assistance from the realization of credit in 2020, coupled with BBRI's people's business credit distribution ceiling (KUR) this year worth IDR152 trillion (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: We believe the economic recovery has the potential to increase lending in FY21E in line with the recovery in household consumption and business activities. Despite this, the low interest rates will keep NIM stable at the 5.7% -6.0% level.BBRI is currently trading at 30.28x/2.96x PE/PBV.
3. CTRA IJ submitted an amendment to the terms and conditions (consent solicitation) on global debt securities (notes) SGD150 million which will mature in September 2021 with an interest rate of 4.85%. The company plans to make a tender offer for the bonds and replace them with new notes from the medium-term debt securities program with a ceiling of up to SGD400 million. Tender offer will be held on January 18th to February 8th 2021 (Investor Daily). MNCS Comment: The tender offer is an effort by CTRA to maintain cash flow amidst a challenging business climate. CTRA is trading at the level of 66.25x/1.39x PE/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI rose by +0.26% to 6,389.84 on Monday (18/01) although followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR183.50 billion. JCI rebounded after the fall on last week’s closing led by consumer sector as the consumer staple stocks strengthened. On the other hand, the deepest decline was from mining sector followed by agriculture sector which declined due to the weakening on CPO price, but CPO will still be on demand as La Nina extends until May 2021. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was weakening at IDR14,070. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 6,300 – 6,473 while waiting for motorbike sales data release. Today's recommendation: WTON, UNTR, BBCA, ELSA.
Corporate Action
RUPS: COCO
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