MNCS Morning Navigator

22 April 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator 22 April 2021

Global Market Highlight
DJIA rose by -0.93% on Tuesday (20/04) followed by S&P 500 (+0.93%) and Nasdaq (+1.19%). Wall Street rebounded as investors regained optimism, shrugging off a new wave of Covid-19 cases that threatened to slow the global recovery. Cruise line stocks led the charge higher despite a new wave of Covid-19 infections sweeping across a number of countries including Japan and India that will likely delay the rebound in travel. Energy stocks increase despite a fall in oil prices on fears of increased supply from Iran. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Initial Jobless Claims; 2) Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision; 3) Hong Kong Unemployment Rate.


Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia stated that the new loan disbursement WNB stood at 93.3%, an increase from 30.4% in 1Q21. This increase will be driven by consumption credit, followed by capital credit. employment, and investment credit. In addition, the survey results indicate respondents are still optimistic about credit growth for the whole of 2021. Respondents predict credit growth in 2021 of 6.0% YoY. This optimism was driven, among others, by monetary and economic conditions, as well as the relatively manageable risk of lending.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 602 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

Company News
1. ASII IJ posted revenue of IDR51.7 trillion in 1Q21, Which slipped by -4% YoY (vs IDR54 trillion in 1Q20). However, COGS also decreased from IDR41.91rillion in 1Q20 to IDR41.10 trillion in 1Q21. ASII posted a net profit of IDR3.73 trillion in 1Q21 which decreased 22% YoY (vs IDR4.81 trillion in 1Q20) (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: ASII's performance is as expected due to low car sales in the first two months of 2021, but eversince the PPnBM tax relaxation been implemented the car sales shot up. We hope it will have further positive impact. Currently ASII is trading at 14.18x/1.32x PE/PBV.

2. AUTO IJ posted revenue of IDR3.62 trillion in 1Q21, which decreased 5.72% YoY (vs IDR3.84 trillion in 1Q20). However, cost of revenue also decreased from IDR3.28 trillion in 1Q20 to IDR3.15 trillion in 1Q21. AUTO posted a net profit of IDR163.92 billion in 1Q21 which increased 42.88% YoY (vs IDR114.72 billion in 1Q20) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The pick up on car sales would also impact the spare part business which we hope would benefit AUTO in FY21E. AUTO is currently trading at 8.97x/0.56x PE/PBV.

3. AALI IJ posted revenue of IDR5.03 trillion in 1Q21, which increased 4.98% YoY (vs IDR4.79 trillion in 1Q20). However, cost of revenue also increased from IDR3.87 trillion in 1Q20 to IDR4.1 trillion in 1Q21. AALI posted a net profit of IDR162.43 billion in 1Q21 which decreased 56.22% YoY (vs IDR371.06 billion in 1Q20) ( MNCS Comment: We believe with efficiency, AALI would be able to supress cost and improve bottom line along with the increase on CPO price which give better outlook at least until the end of 1H21. AALI is trading at 29.03/0.99x PE/PBV.


IHSG Updates
JCI slipped by -0.75% to 5,993.24 on Wednesday (21/04) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR512 billion. The global market volatility has significantly affected the JCI movement as it mirrored the drop on the global indices. Furthermore, almost all sectors fell except for agriculture as the rise in CPO price brought the stocks up. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was weakening at Rp14,530. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 5,930-6,040 while waiting for the motorbike sales data release. Today's recommendation: INDY, ANTM, SSMS, ACES.


Corporate Action
Cum Dividend Date: CINT (IDR1/share), AALI (IDR153/share)
Cum Rights Issue: FREN (IDR120/share)


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