MNCS Morning Navigator

25 April 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator April 25, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA weakened -2.82% on Friday (22/04), followed by S&P 500 (-2.77%) and Nasdaq (-2.55%). Wall Street weakened significantly, signaling that the Fed's monetary tightening will increase interest rates by +50 bps, which was responded negatively by investors. The negative growth outlook as China is still implementing the lockdown policy, the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, as well as rising yields have added to the negative sentiment for Wall Street. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Chicago Fed National Activity Index; 2) Germany Ifo Business Climate; 3) Japan Coincident Index Final.

Domestic Update
• The government has officially banned the export of CPO and cooking oil starting April 28, 2022 in the midst of rising cooking oil prices and scarcity in the market. MNCS Comment: In the short term, we see that the export ban will have an impact on increasing global CPO and vegetable oil prices. However, the export ban policy tends to be counterproductive because it will only result in a decline in exports, drop in foreign exchange supply and a decline in business sector income, thereby potentially disrupting domestic economic recovery and external stability.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 78.7% or equivalent to 163.90 million people.

Company News
1. EXCL IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR552.07 billion or equivalent to IDR51 per share. Dividend payout ratio of 50% of FY21 net profit of IDR1.1 trillion. Cum dividend date on May 10, 2022 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Therefore, EXCL will offer a dividend yield of 1.61% in FY21 or greater than a FY20 yield of 1.54%. EXCL is currently trading at 26.32x/1.69x PER/PBV.
2. SIDO IJ recorded revenue of IDR880.49 billion in 1Q22 or up +10.97% YoY (vs IDR793.41 billion in 1Q21). Net profit was recorded at IDR295.03 billion in 1Q22 or up +9.65% YoY (vs IDR269.04 billion in 1Q21) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Performance growth was driven by top line, where sales of herbal herbal medicine rose +4.56% YoY to IDR529.01 billion, and food & beverage sales to IDR308.71 billion in 1Q22. It is expected that SIDO's performance will consistently grow in FY22E, in line with the company's plan to increase domestic distribution and development of new products, through capex which is targeted at IDR210 billion in FY22E. SIDO is currently trading at 23.77x/9.08x PER/PBV levels.
3. MTEL IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR966.7 billion or around IDR11.57 per share. Dividend payout ratio of 70% of FY21 net profit of IDR1.38 trillion Cum dividend date on May 12, 2022 (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: That way MTEL will offer a dividend yield of 1.45% in FY21. This shows that the company has a positive performance, where MTEL is one of the new companies that is listed for IPO on Dec-21 which distributes dividends. MTEL is currently trading at 48.38x/1.99x PER/PBV levels.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.70% to 7,225.60 on Friday (22/04), followed by net foreign buys which reached IDR2.23 trillion. Almost all sectors weakened and weighed on the index, led by the energy sector (-2.11%) followed by the health sector (-1.85%). On the other hand, the sector that experienced strengthening was the transportation sector (+0.56%). The Fed's decision to tighten monetary policy aggressively overshadowed the JCI movement. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed low at IDR14,357/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,200-7,260. Today’s recommendation: MTEL, BUKA, MYOR, GZCO.

Corporate Action
IPO: IBOS (IDR100/share), WINR (IDR100/share)

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