MNCS Morning Navigator

05 Agustus 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator August 5, 2022

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.26% on Thursday (04/08), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.08%) while the Nasdaq (+0.41%). Wall Street closed mixed. The negative sentiment came from the release of initial jobless claims data as of July 30 which rose to 260,000 (vs 254,000 previously), exceeding the consensus of 259,000. In addition, the geopolitical tension between the US and China has been heating up again as China fired 11 missiles near Taiwan after the visit of the US House of Representatives chairman. Meanwhile, positive catalysts driving the Nasdaq movement came from the decline in the US T-note 10Y yield to the level of 2.67%. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Non Farm Payrolls; 2) US Unemployment Rate; 3) France Balance of Trade.

Domestic Update
Indonesia's GDP growth is expected to be +5.17%/+5.22% YoY (consensus/MNCS) in 2Q22. MNCS Comment: GDP growth is estimated to still grow >5% YoY in 2Q22 in line with: 1) increase in economic activity/mobility; 2) household consumption; 3) the presence of FDI inflow and 4) the continuation of the trade balance surplus.
Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 6,527 active cases (04/08).

Company News
1. BSDE IJ recorded revenue growth in 1H22 of +17.87% YoY to IDR3.83 trillion (vs IDR3.25 trillion in 1H21). Moreover, net profit fell by -31.82% YoY to IDR463.64 billion (vs IDR680 billion in 1H21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was supported by the gain from the marketing sales which grew +61% YoY to IDR4.7 trillion, or the realization reached 61% of the target in FY22E of IDR7.7 trillion. The profit decline was in line with the increase in operating expenses (+26.88% YoY) and weighed on operating profit performance (-9.20% YoY). Currently, BSDE is traded at the level of 20.89/0.61x PER/PBV.
2. DMAS IJ recorded revenue growth in 1H22 of +84.08% YoY to IDR1.07 trillion (vs IDR579.79 billion in 1H21). Furthermore, net profit increased +156.77% YoY to IDR660.04 billion (vs IDR288.58 billion in 1H21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Revenue growth was in line with the marketing sales which rose +9.94% YoY to IDR995 billion or the realization reached 55.3% of the target in FY22E of IDR1.8 trillion. The company's margin increased, where GPM, OPM and NPM in 1H22 were 70.76%, 61.08% and 61.86%, respectively (vs 57.73%, 43.97% and 49.77% in 1H21). Currently, DMAS is traded at the level of 6.17x/1.38x PER/PBV.
3. MPPA IJ recorded a net revenue growth in 1H22 of +4.8% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion (vs IDR3.54 trillion in 1H21). Meanwhile, net loss grew by +73.33% to IDR158.60 billion (vs IDR91.50 billion in 1H21) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was supported by the growth of the retail segment +6.70% YoY amidst the decline in the wholesale segment -16.13% YoY. The widening net loss was triggered by an increase in general and administrative expenses +26.91% YoY which resulted in an operating loss of IDR80.12 billion (vs 1H21 operating profit of Rp50.41 billion). Currently, the MPPA is traded at the level of 4.50x PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened by +0.15% to 7,057.35 on Thursday (04/08), followed by net foreign buy which reached IDR1.12 trillion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and boosted the index rate, led by the technology sector (+3.08%) followed by the transportation sector (+1.35%). On the other hand, the weakening sectors were led by the energy sector (-2.57%) followed by the industrial sector (-0.47%). The index rate was pushed by Wall Street, as well as was ahead of the release of Indonesia's GDP data in 2Q22 which is expected to grow from 1Q22, which according to the consensus estimate is +5.17% YoY (+5.01% in 1Q22). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at IDR14,933/USD. We estimate the JCI will move in the price range of 7,030-7,100 pending the release of GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2, and Foreign Exchange Reserves JUL data. Today's recommendation: DEWA, SMGR, TLKM, BBNI.

Corporate Action
Cum Dividend: CEKA (IDR100/share)
Cum Rights: AHAP (IDR50/share)
IPO: RAFI (IDR158/share)

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