MNCS Morning Navigator

06 Februari 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator February 6, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA fell -0.38% on Friday (03/02), followed by the S&P500 (-1.04%) and the Nasdaq (-1.59%). Wall Street closed mixed, where investors responded positively to a slowdown in the FFR increase of +25 bps to 4.50% -4.75%. Furthermore, a positive catalyst also came from the initial jobless claims as of January 28, 2023, which amounted to 183k, or down 3k from the previous. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI Jan; 2) Germany S&P Global Construction PMI Jan; 3) France S&P Global Construction PMI Jan.

Domestic Update
Today, BPS will announce the realization of Indonesia's GDP growth in 4Q22 and FY22. MNCS Comment: We project Indonesia's GDP growth in 4Q22 and FY22 to be +4.96%/+5.29% YoY respectively. This target is supported by an increase in: 1) investment realization; 2) trade balance surplus; 3) government spending; and 4) domestic consumption.

Company News
1. ANTM IJ recorded unaudited ferronickel production of 25,818 TNi; nickel ore 8.62 million wmt and gold 1,268 Kg in FY22 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Ferronickel/nickel ore/gold production fell -5.7%/-21.7%/-24.9% YoY respectively. Inline with the decline in production, sales volume of ferronickel and nickel ore also fell -6.9%/-9.0% YoY respectively, while gold sales grew +19.0% YoY. Even though production and sales decreased, this was offset by an increase in selling prices, where ANTM in 9M22 recorded revenue growth of +27.2% YoY, and it is hoped that this trend will continue into FY22. Currently, ANTM is traded at the level of 15.99x/2.48x PER/PBV.
2. HEXA IJ posted revenue growth in FY22 of +32.9% YoY to USD410.4 million (vs USD308.9 million in FY21). Meanwhile, net profit fell -10.1% YoY to USD35.0 million (vs. USD38.9 million in FY21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The decrease in net profit amid the increase in revenue was caused by an increase in selling expenses +31.3% YoY and G&A of +14.5% YoY. Meanwhile, the significant increase in selling expenses was triggered by an increase in royalty expenses of +33.4% YoY. Currently, HEXA is traded at the level of 6.04x/1.87 PER/PBV.
3. ERAA IJ targets outlet expansion to reach 600 units in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: ERAA's outlet expansion target has increased compared to FY22 which amounted to 500 outlets, with realization up to 9M22 of 62.2% (311 outlets). In line with this target, we estimate the capex allocation to reach IDR360 billion. Currently, ERAA is traded at the level of 8.76x/1.24x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.31% to 6,911.73 on Friday (03/02), followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR1.25 trillion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and drove the index rate, led by the technology sector (+1.62%) followed by the property sector (+1.23%). On the other hand, sectors that experienced a decline were led by the energy sector (-3.27%) followed by the industrial sector (-0.58%). The index strengthened ahead of the release of Indonesia's 4Q22 and FY22 GDP data which is expected to continue growing +4.84%/+5.29% YoY according to consensus (vs +5.72%/+3.69% YoY in 3Q22/FY21). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at the level of IDR14,893/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,882-6,931 pending the release of GDP Growth Rate Q4 and GDP Growth FY22. Today's recommendation: BBKP, BBRI, BUKA, TOWR.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: AMOR (IDR16/share)
IPO: NAYZ (IDR100/share)

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