MNCS Morning Navigator

13 Januari 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator January 13, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened +0.64% on Thursday (12/01), followed by the S&P500 (+0.34%) and the Nasdaq (+0.64%). Wall Street continued to gain solidly as the headline inflation and core inflation data released fell and were in line with consensus estimates of +6.5%/+5.7% YoY respectively (vs +7.1%/6% YoY in Nov-2022 ). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Jan; 2) Germany Full Year GDP Growth 2022; 3) UK GDP YoY Nov.

Domestic Update
Banking mortgage rates show an increase of 9 bps to 8.66% in Oct-2022. MNCS Comment: This increase occurred in line with adjustments to the BI7DRR reference rate, as well as the impact of the banking liquidity.

Company News
1. MARK IJ targets revenue and net profit in FY23E to reach IDR880/225 billion, respectively (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Compared to the 2022 target (IDR838/242 billion), revenue is estimated to grow +5% YoY while net profit decreases -7% YoY. We view this decline as a result of the oversupply of the medical glove industry, as well as expansion in the toilet seat and sprayer factories. Currently, MARK is traded at the level of 7.99x/3.02x PER/PBV.
2. IPCC IJ reported that CBU export loading and unloading in FY22 reached 367,488 units, while CBU imports reached 69,706 units (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Thus, CBU export and import loading and unloading each grew +27/48% YoY in FY22. We see a growth trend in FY23F as GAIKINDO increases its domestic car sales target to 975k (960k units in FY22). Currently, IPCC is traded at the level of 6.76x/0.87x PER/PBV.
3. SMSM IJ targets revenue growth in FY23F of +10% YoY (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: We see this target will be supported by: 1) IDR150 billion capex allocation (vs IDR100 billion in FY22); 2) increase in penetration of the export market. Currently, SMSM is traded at the level of 10.17x/3.09x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.69% to 6,629.93 on Thursday (12/01), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR462.24 trillion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and drove the index rate, led by the technology sector (+1.66%) and followed by the financial sector (+1.64%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced weakness were the energy sector (-1.03%) and the transportation sector (-0.94%). The strengthening of the index was in line with the strengthening of Wall Street and Asian stock exchanges. We see investors responding positively to global inflation which has reached its peak and is projected to begin to decline, as inflation estimates in the US decrease in Dec-2022 by +6.5% YoY (vs +7.1% YoY in Nov-2022). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at the level of IDR15,338/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,590-6,730. Today's recommendation: AKRA, PGAS, TOWR, UNVR.

Corporate Actions
Cum Right Issue: PBRX (IDR50/share)
Public Expose: CPRI

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