MNCS Morning Navigator

02 Januari 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator January 2, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA fell -0.22% on Friday (30/12), followed by the S&P500 (-0.25%) and the Nasdaq (-0.11%). Wall Street corrected amid the release of Chicago PMI data in Dec-2022 which rose to a level of 44.9 points (vs 37.2 points previously). The increase in the UST yield to the level of 3.87% weighed on Wall Street's pace. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Dec; 2) France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Dec; 3) France 12-Month BTF Auction.

Domestic Update
• Based on transaction data on December 26-29 2022, non-residents on the domestic financial market recorded a net sell of IDR3.51 trillion, consisting of IDR0.88 trillion net selling on the SBN market and IDR2.63 trillion net selling on the stock market. MNCS Comment: The ongoing net selling on the stock market in the 4th week of December-2022 reflects the attitude of foreign investors who tend to wait and see ahead of the potential for a global economic slowdown in 1H23. Meanwhile, net stock market purchases as of December 29, 2022 still reached IDR61.02 trillion.
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 366 active cases (01/01).

Company News
1. BBRI IJ will distribute an interim cash dividend for the FY22 financial year of IDR8.63 trillion or IDR57/share, with the cum dividend date on January 9, 2023 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Thus, BBRI will offer a dividend yield of 1.2%. With an estimated net profit of IDR47.6 trillion in FY22E, it is estimated that the payout ratio will only reach 18.1%. Currently, BBRI is traded at the level of 2.52x PBV.
2. BMRI IJ recorded a net profit increase of +59.8% YoY to IDR34.8 trillion to 11M22 (Investor ID). MNCS Comment: We see an increase in net profit supported by growth in net interest income which reached IDR48.9 trillion. With an estimated net profit in FY22E reaching IDR39.1 trillion, realization up to 11M22 reached 89.1%. Currently, BMRI is traded at the level of 2.18x PBV.
3. PZZA IJ realized the addition of 82 new outlets in FY22E, bringing the total operated outlets to 616 outlets (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Despite the total operated outlets growing +14.1% YoY (vs 540 in FY21), we also recorded the closure of 6 units in FY22E. It is hoped that through the realization of outlets which are higher than FY21 by 20 units, it can boost the company's performance in FY23E. Currently, PZZA is traded at the level of 1.52x PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.14% to 6,850.62 on Friday (30/12), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR767.28 billion. A number of sectors experienced weakening and weighed on the index, led by the technology sector (-0.89%) and followed by the non-cyclical sector (-0.89%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced strengthening were the infrastructure sector (+1.34%) and followed by the health sector (+0.68%). The weakening of the index was in line with the weakening of Wall Street. We see that investors tend to wait and see ahead of the announcement of Indonesia's inflation rate in Dec-2022 which is estimated by consensus to slow down to 5.39% YoY (vs 5.42% YoY in Nov-2022 realization). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at the level of IDR15,568/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,760-6,892 pending the release of Inflation Rate Dec, Core Inflation Rate Dec, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Dec. Today's recommendation: ANTM, ERAA, MYOR, UNTR.

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