MNCS Morning Navigator

16 Juni 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator June 16, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened by +1.00% on Wednesday (15/06), followed by the S&P500 (+1.46%) and Nasdaq (+2.50%). Wall Street managed to rebound amid the Fed's decision to raise the benchmark interest rate (FFR) +75 bps to 1.50%-1.75%. Furthermore, the planned FFR hike at the Jul-22 FOMC by +50 bps/+75 bps managed to ease market concerns over the possibility of more aggressive monetary tightening. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Continuing Jobless Claims; 2) US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; 3) UK BOE Interest Rate Decision.

Domestic Update
Indonesia's trade balance surplus fell in May-22 to USD2.90 billion (vs USD7.56 billion in Apr-22) due to a decrease in the value of exports -21.29% MoM and imports by -5.81% MoM. MNCS Comment: The monthly decline in exports was affected by the CPO export ban. CPO exports fell -87.72% MoM. However, the trade balance surplus continued for 25 consecutive months in line with persistently high commodity prices.
Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 1,242 active cases (15/06).

Company News
1. UNVR IJ will distribute a final cash dividend of IDR3.2 trillion or equivalent to IDR84 per share, from the FY21 net profit of IDR 5.76 trillion (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: UNVR will offer a dividend yield of 1.8%, with an interim FY21 DPS of IDR66, hence causing the accumulated FY21 DPS to be Rp150, or a dividend payout ratio (DPR) of 99%. Currently, UNVR is trading at 22.65x/28.69x PER/PBV.
2. ASII IJ recorded a decline in car sales in May-22 by -18.72% YoY to 23,059 units (vs 28,373 units in May-22). The decrease was due to the reduced number of working days which impacted car sales (Emiten news). MNCS Comment: Historically, we see that this downward trend is very reasonable considering the Eid holiday. However, we estimate that in Jun-22 the sales trend will recover, especially with the implementation of motor vehicle incentives up to 9M22. ASII is currently trading at 9.89x/1.51x PER/PBV.
3. ELSA IJ projects revenues in the upstream oil and gas services segment in FY22E of IDR3.15 trillion, supported by contributions from oilfield services of IDR1.9 trillion, geoscience & reservoir services of IDR800 billion, and EPC-OM services of IDR350 billion (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: In FY21, revenue from the integrated upstream oil and gas service segment reached IDR2.95 trillion or decreased by -20.91% YoY (vs Rp. 3.73 trillion in FY20), and contributed to total revenue in FY21 of 36.2%. It is hoped that this projection will also improve the company's performance in FY22E. ELSA is currently trading at 20.94x/0.60x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -0.61% to 7,007.05 on Wednesday (15/06), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR809.11 billion. The majority of sectors weakened and weighed on the index, led by the energy sector (-3.52%) followed by the transportation sector (-3.47%). On the other hand, the strengthening sector was led by the technology sector (+1.83%) followed by the raw materials sector (+0.66%). The index weakened amid the release of Indonesia's trade balance data for May-22 which recorded a surplus of USD2.90 billion. The sell-off took place again where investors were waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision (FFR) during the FOMC meeting on June 14-15, 2022, where the market estimates that the Fed will raise interest rates to 1.50%-1.75%. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at Rp14,743/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,960-7,090. Today's recommendation: BIRD, PGAS, TLKM, UNVR.

Corporate Action
Cum Dividend: ACES (IDR20.59/share), IMPC (IDR22/share), TPMA (IDR12/share)

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