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MNCS Morning Navigator

15 Maret 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator March 15, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA strenghtened +1.06% on Tuesday (14/03), followed by the S&P500 (+1.65%) and the Nasdaq (+2.14%). Wall Street compactly closed higher, as worries eased after the SVB fall and the release of Feb-2023 inflation data which slowed to +6.0% YoY (vs +6.4% YoY in Jan-2023), or in line with consensus. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US PPI MoM Feb; 2) US Retail Sales MoM Feb; 3) US Business Inventories MoM Jan.

Domestic Update
• Indonesia's foreign debt was recorded to have decreased -1.9%, consisting of a contraction of government debt by -2.5% and a contraction of private debt by -1.5%. MNCS Comment: Indonesia's foreign debt structure remains prudent at a ratio of 0.3 towards GDP, supported by growth in investment allocation towards the domestic and international SBN markets.

Company News
1. BMRI IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR24.7 trillion or the equivalent of IDR529.34 per share from net profit for the FY22 fiscal year of IDR41.2 trillion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Therefore, BMRI will offer a dividend yield of 5.3%. DPS increased +46.8% YoY (vs IDR360.6 in FY21). Currently, BMRI is traded at the level of 2.02x PBV.
2. SMGR IJ recorded net profit growth of +15.5% YoY to IDR2.4 trillion (vs IDR2.0 trillion in FY21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Increase in net profit amid flat income (-0.9% YoY) along with reduced effective tax-rate to 24.2% (vs 40.2% in FY21). It was noted that margins experienced a contraction, where GPM/NPM became 29.4%/6.5%, respectively (vs. 32.0%/5.6% in FY21). Currently, SMGR is traded at the level of 18.77x/1.04x PBV.
3. CSAP IJ posted a net profit of IDR239.1 billion, or grew +13.0% YoY (vs IDR211.5 billion in FY21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by revenue growth reaching +7.9% YoY, in line with the increase in ceramics segment revenue (+7.0% YoY) which contributed 38.0%. In addition, margins were recorded as expansive, where GPM/NPM were 17.1%/1.6%, respectively (vs 16.8%/1.5% in FY21). Currently, CSAP is traded at the level of 13.61x/1.41x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -2.14% to 6,641.81 on Tuesday (14/03), followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR1.33 trillion. All sectors experienced weakening and suppressed the index rate, led by the transportation sector (-3.93%) followed by the technology sector (-3.07%). The index weakened as investors panicked, anticipating the continued impact of Silicon Valley Bank's fall on global financial markets. In addition, investors also tend to wait and see ahead of the release of US inflation data in February 2023. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at the level of IDR15,365/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,616-6,664 pending the release of Balance of Trade Feb, Exports YoY Feb, and Imports YoY Feb data. Today's recommendation: INCO, TRJA, WOOD, UNVR.

Disclaimer On

BMRI SMGR CSAP INCO TRJA WOOD UNVR

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