MNCS Morning Navigator

11 Mei 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator May 11, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA weakened -0.26% on Tuesday (10/05), while the S&P 500 (+0.25%) and Nasdaq (+0.98%) strengthened. Wall Street closed mixed, supported by the decline in US T-note 10Y yield to a level of 2.99% triggered by the Fed's comments that inflation expectations in FY24F will approach the level of 2% in line with the Fed's target. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Inflation Rate YoY; 2) Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final; 3) Japan Coincident Index Prel.

Domestic Update
SUN auction conducted on May 10, 2022 lacked investors participation. The total incoming bid was only IDR19.74 trillion and the value awarded was IDR7.76 trillion which was lower than the indicative target set at IDR20-30 trillion. MNCS Comment: The lack of interest from investors to participate was caused by an increasing risk from external factors, namely the FFR hike which triggered outflows from SBN market and increased yields, which prompted investors to wait and see.
Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 79.5% or equivalent to 165.66 million people.

Company News
1. TLKM IJ posted revenue of IDR35.21 trillion in 1Q22 or down +3.72% YoY (vs IDR33.95 trillion in 1Q21). Net profit slightly increased +1.73% YoY to IDR6.12 trillion in 1Q22 (vs IDR6.01 trillion in 1Q21) (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Revenue from mobile segment was the biggest contribution of IDR21.23 trillion in 1Q22 (+0.08% YoY). Meanwhile, TLKM data traffic grew +19.2% YoY in 1Q22. Driven by EBITDA growth of 3.08% YoY in 1Q22, strengthening TLKM as one of the telecommunications companies with solid performance. Currently, TLKM is trading at the level of 17,57x/3,36x PER/PBV.
2. EXCL IJ posted revenue of IDR6.74 trillion in 1Q22 or up +7.92% YoY (vs IDR6.25 trillion in 1Q21). Net profit decreased by -56.60% YoY to IDR139.09 billion in 1Q22 (vs IDR161.65 billion in 1Q21) (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Data revenue contributed 84% of EXCL's total revenue reaching IDR5.69 trillion (+9.16% YoY). However, the company's total expenses increased +12.82% YoY to IDR5.99 trillion in 1Q22, which caused the bottom line to decrease. EXCL's NPM was 2.06% in 1Q22 or down (vs 5.13% in 1Q21). EXCL is trading at 57,64x/1,58x PER/PBV.
3. INTP IJ recorded net sales of IDR3.56 trillion in 1Q22 or up +3.48% YoY (vs IDR3.44 trillion in 1Q21). Net profit decreased -48.04% YoY to IDR182.56 billion in 1Q22 (vs IDR351.59 billion in 1Q21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in top line was supported by cement sales which rose +3.56% YoY to IDR3.36 trillion in 1Q22. However, COGS increased by +11.07% YoY with fuel and electricity expenses which rose significantly +53.07% YoY, due to rising commodity prices. Currently, INTP is trading at 50.54x/1.80x PE/PBV levels.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -1.30% to 6,819.79 on Tuesday (10/05), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR3.20 trillion. The majority of sectors weakened and weighed on the index's pace, led by the technology sector (-4.61%) followed by the energy sector (-2.06%). On the other hand, the strengthening sector was led by the non-cyclical sector (+1.64%) followed by the transportation sector (+1.12%). The index's decline was in line with Asian markets and Wall Street. Negative sentiment in the form of market participants' concerns about the Fed's monetary tightening and the potential for global economic stagflation in line with the lockdown in China still weighed on the index. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed low at IDR14,557/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,650-6,900 while waiting for the release of Consumer Confidence APR data. Today’s recommendation: ASII, AVIA, PGAS, BIRD.

Corporate Action

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