MNCS Morning Navigator

12 Mei 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator May 12, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA weakened -1.02% on Wednesday (11/05), followed by the S&P 500 (-1.65%) and Nasdaq (-3.18%). Wall Street corrected along with negative sentiment in the form of data on the Apr-22 inflation rate that is still high at 8.3% YoY (vs. 8.5% YoY Mar-22) and exceeded the consensus at 8.1% YoY, triggering a sell off action. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US PPI MoM; 2) UK GDP YoY; 3) UK Goods Trade Balance.

Domestic Update
Retail sales are expected to still grow positively by +11.5% YoY in March-22. MNCS Comment: We view that the positive annual growth in retail sales is influenced by several factors: 1) improvement in mobility and 2) the continued trend of economic recovery.
Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 79.6% or equivalent to 165.72 million people.

Company News
1. ITMG IJ posted net revenue of USD639.93 million in 1Q22 or up +125.14% YoY (vs USD284.24 million in 1Q21). Net profit recorded a significant increase of +406.81% YoY to USD213.27 million in 1Q22 (vs USD42.08 in 1Q21) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: The largest revenue came from coal sales to third parties which reached USD618.83 million in 1Q22. The increase in performance was supported by an increase in ASP of +125% YoY, which was caused by the increase in global coal prices amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Currently, ITMG is trading at the level of 2.67x/1.84x PER/PBV.
2. KAEF IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR90.68 billion or equivalent to IDR 19 per share with the dividend payout ratio of 30% of FY21's net profit of IDR302.27 billion (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Therefore, KAEF will offer a dividend yield of 1.29% in FY21. Currently, KAEF is trading at the level of 26.92x/1.14x PER/PBV.
3. DMAS IJ recorded revenue of IDR621 billion in 1Q22 or up +16.3% YoY (vs IDR534 billion in 1Q21). Net profit increased by +43.7% YoY to IDR389 billion in 1Q22 (vs IDR271 billion in 1Q21) (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: The increase in the top line was mainly supported by its industrial segment which recorded an increase of revenue to IDR431 billion or contributed 69.4% of total revenue. Currently, DMAS is trading at 5.29x/1.44x PE/PBV levels.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.05% to 6,816.20 on Wednesday (11/05), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR307.09 billion. A number of sectors weakened and weighed on the pace of the index, led by the technology sector (-2.71%) followed by the financial sector (-0.58%). On the other hand, the strengthening sector was led by the non-cyclical sector (+3.08%) followed by the raw materials sector (+1.35%). The index corrected amid the release of Apr-22 Consumer Confidence Index data, which rose to 113.1. Investors are watching China's Apr-22 inflation rate which grew 2.1% YoY (vs. consensus at 1.8% YoY) and waiting for the release of the US Apr-22 inflation rate data. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed low at IDR14,557/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,650-6,900 while waiting for the release of Retail Sales YoY MAR data. Today’s recommendation: ADRO, MYOR, RALS, MARK.

Corporate Action
Cum Dividend: MCOL (IDR460/share)

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