MNCS Morning Navigator

17 Mei 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator May 17, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA fell -1.01% on Tuesday (16/05), followed by the S&P500 (-0.64%) and the Nasdaq (-0.18%). Wall Street weakened again with the release of April 2023 retail sales data which only grew +0.4% MoM, or below the consensus at +0.8% MoM. Apart from that, the market is also observing the process of discussing the debt ceiling which is still ongoing. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Building Permits Prel Apr; 2) US MBA Mortgage Applications May 12; 3) France Unemployment Rate Q1.

Domestic Update
The reference coal price (HBA) in May-2023 for coal with a calorific value (CV) of 6,322kcal/kg is set at USD206/ton, for CV 5,200kcal/kg at USD119/ton and for CV <5,200 priced at USD82 /ton. MNCS Comment: The HBA imposed for May as a royalty expense basis has the potential to burden coal companies due to the fact that global prices contracted quite deeply during May due to weak demand from China and India.

Company News
1. TAPG IJ will distribute cash dividends for the FY22 financial year of IDR754.39 billion, or equivalent to IDR38 per share (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Therefore, we estimate TAPG will offer a dividend yield of 6.3%. The amount of DPS is higher compared to the previous period of IDR25 per share. Currently, TAPG is traded at the level of 10.19x/1.16x PER/PBV.
2. TKIM IJ will distribute cash dividends for the FY22 fiscal year of IDR77.83 billion or equivalent to IDR25 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Therefore, we estimate that TKIM will offer a dividend yield of 0.4%. TKIM's DPS was flat amid an increase in net profit of +86.6% YoY in FY22. Currently, TKIM is traded at the level of 33.40x/0.54x PER/PBV.
3. INDY IJ has established a new entity, namely PT Kalista Nusa Armada (KNA) which is engaged in the leasing and trading of electric vehicles, as well as operating the installation of electricity supply (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: We view positively the company's efforts to continue to diversify its business in a more sustainable direction. With the B2B concept, we see this can strengthen the company's EV ecosystem thus potentially bringing in additional revenue streams going forward. Currently, INDY is traded at the level of 2.94x/0.56x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.52% to 6,676.56 on Tuesday (16/05), followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR595.56 billion. Almost all sectors experienced weakening and weighed on the index, led by the technology sector (-2.12%) followed by the raw materials sector (-1.60%). On the other hand, the sector that only experienced strengthening was the health sector (+0.40%). The index's weakness was in line with some Asian bourses, where investors were keeping a close eye on China's macro data releases, where Apr-2023 retail sales (+18.4% YoY) and Apr-2023 industrial production (+5.6% YoY), remained at below the respective consensus estimates at +21% YoY/+10.9% YoY, or reflecting low demand thereby giving a negative view of the outlook for economic growth. The rupiah closed lower at IDR14,820/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,642-6,700. Today's recommendation: BBCA, ERAA, SRTG, TINS.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: WTON (IDR3.75/share)

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