MNCS Morning Navigator

19 Mei 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator May 19, 2023

Global Market Highlights

DJIA strengthened +0.34% on Thursday (18/05), followed by the S&P500 (+0.94%) and the Nasdaq (+1.51%). Wall Street managed to close higher as investors were optimistic that the US debt ceiling would be raised. Moreover, initial jobless claims as of 13-May fell to 242k (vs 264k previously). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Fed Chair Powell Speech; 2) Germany PPI Apr; 3) Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM Mar.

Domestic Update
Residential property sales in the primary market in 1Q23 contracted -8.26% YoY and -11.03% QoQ (vs +4.56% YoY in 4Q22). MNCS Comment: The decline in property sales came from the sale of small and large category, while the sales of medium-type houses increased, supported by a slowdown in the medium-type property price index of 0.66% QoQ (vs 0.76% in 4Q22) which is in line with the slowdown of building materials inflation in 1Q23.

Company News
1. INTP IJ will distribute cash dividends for the FY22 financial year of IDR548.97 billion, or the equivalent of IDR160 per share (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Therefore, we estimate INTP will offer a dividend yield of 1.5%. The amount of DPS decreased from the previous year at IDR500 per share, amidst a +3.0% YoY increase in net profit in FY22. Currently, INTP is traded at the level of 25.71x/1.92x PER/PBV.
2. NCKL IJ posted a net profit of IDR4.7 trillion in FY22, an increase of +137.1% YoY (vs IDR2.0 trillion in FY21) (IDX Channel). MNCS Comment: The significant increase in net profit was supported by a +16.3% YoY increase in revenue to IDR9.6 trillion (vs IDR8.2 trillion in FY21). In addition, profit on associates was reported at IDR2.9 trillion, which made NPM expansive to a level of 48.8% (vs 23.9% in FY21). Currently, NCKL is traded at the level of 10.82x/6.53x PER/PBV.
3. ITMG IJ targets coal sales volume to reach 21.5-22.2 million tons in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Thus, the sales target for coal volume has increased compared to the realization in FY22 which amounted to 18.9 million tons. Meanwhile, sales volume in 1Q23 was recorded at 4.5 million tons, or the realization of the target in FY23E only reached 20.3%-20.9%. Currently, ITMG is traded at the level of 2.70x/1.18x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI closed on Thursday (18/05) commemorating the Ascension Day of Jesus Christ. Meanwhile, the majority of Asian markets closed higher, where investors observed the positive tone from US President Joe Biden, regarding discussions on the US debt ceiling with the DPR which had progressed, thus helping to reduce market uncertainty. The rupiah closed at IDR14,865/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,642-6,700 pending the release of Car Sales YoY Apr data. Today's recommendation: BUMI, INKP, MEDC, PNLF.

Corporate Actions
Cum Stock Split: TUGU (1:2)
Cum Dividend: TOTL (IDR100/share), ABMM (IDR400/share)

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