Global Market Highlights
DJIA rose +1.98% on Monday (23/05), followed by the S&P 500 (+1.86%) and the Nasdaq (+1.59%). US president Joe Biden's decision to reconsider import tariffs on China was greeted positively by the market. Meanwhile, the statement of the JPMorgan Chase CEO, Dimon, that the economic storm could potentially end lifted up investors’ optimism. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash; 2) UK S&P/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash; 3) Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash.
Domestic Update
• As of Apr-22, the government recorded a budget surplus of IDR103.1tn (+0.58% of GDP). The surplus was driven by an increase in state income +45.9% YoY. MNCS Comment: The increase in state revenue was caused by 3 factors: 1) low base effect; 2) high commodity prices; and 3) improving economic activity. The increase in commodity prices also led to an increase in subsidy posts. The budget surplus makes the debt outlook and SBN issuance to be lower for FY22F.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 80.1% or equivalent to 166.85 million people.
Company News
1. CPIN IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR1.77 trillion or equivalent to IDR108 per share (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Dividend yield of 2.18% (vs 1.74% in 2020), while payout ratio of 48.91% with a total FY21 net profit of IDR3.62 trillion (-5.76% YoY). In line with net income, dividend per share decreased compared to the previous year of IDR112 per share. However, it is interesting when viewed from the yields offered. Currently, CPIN is trading at 22.46x/3.24x PER/PBV.
2. SSMS IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR763.43 billion or equivalent to IDR80.15 per share, FY21 net profit of IDR1.51 trillion, resulting in a payout ratio of 50% (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: With this dividend yield offered at 6.79%, the amount of dividends also increased by +162.87% YoY compared to the previous period, in line with the profit increase of +162.82% YoY in FY21. SSMS is currently trading at 7.42x/1.85x PER/PBV.
3. ARTO IJ collaborated in financing working capital loans with Carsome, until 1Q22 Bank Jago had collaborated with more than 32 institutions and helped to grow lending and sharia reaching IDR6.14 trillion (iqplus). MNCS Comment: We view positively that the company's collaborative efforts can encourage better performance in the future, utilizing the synergies of the two ecosystems. Until 1Q22, ARTO's net interest and sharia income increased significantly by +844.95% YoY. Currently, ARTO is trading at the level of 13.07x PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -1.12% to 6,840.77 on Monday (23/05), followed by net foreign buys which reached IDR155.24 billion. The majority of sectors were weak and weighed on the index's pace, led by the technology sector (-1.72%) followed by the non-cyclical sector (-1.31%). On the other hand, the strengthening sector was led by the healthcare sector (+2.33%) followed by the cyclical sector (+0.33%). The index was corrected in line with the selling action that occurred in global markets at the end of last week, which was caused by Goldman Sachs' forecast which stated that there was a 35% chance of the US economy going into recession in the next two years. On the other hand, from within the country, investors who tend to wait and see are waiting for the decision of the Board of Governors' Meeting (RDG) regarding the benchmark interest rate (BI-7DRR). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed low at IDR14,674/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,795-6,930 while waiting for the release of Loan Growth YoY APR, Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate MAR, and Deposit Facility Rate MAR data. Today’s recommendation: BBNI, AKRA, BRMS, MYOR.
Corporate Action
RUPS: ANTM, PTBA, TINS
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