Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened +1.65% on Friday (05/05), followed by the S&P500 (+1.85%) and the Nasdaq (+2.25%). Wall Street managed to rebound, supported by the release of Non Farm Payrolls data in Apr-2023 of 253k, or exceeding the consensus estimate of 180k. In addition, the unemployment rate fell again to 3.4%, indicating a solid job market and alleviating fears of an economic recession ahead. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Wholesale Inventories MoM Mar; 2) US Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr; 3) Germany Industrial Production MoM Apr.
Domestic Update
• Indonesia's GDP in 1Q23 grew by +5.03% YoY (vs 5.01% YoY in 4Q22) and slowed -0.92% QoQ (vs 0.36% QoQ in 4Q22). MNCS Comment: Resilient economic growth is driven by growth in all GDP components, especially household consumption during Ramadan and is supported by a manageable trend of inflation. Economic growth in FY23E is forecasted at 4.5-5.3%, aided by anticipation of the Fed's tightening cycle hiatus, which has the potential to accelerate the flow of trade & investment to the domestic side coupled with solid export performance.
Company News
1. ADRO IJ recorded net profit growth of +14.5% YoY to USD458.0 million in 1Q23 (vs. USD400.1 million in 1Q22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by an increase in revenue +50.1% YoY to USD 1.8 billion (vs USD1.2 billion in 1Q22), as sales grew +28.7% YoY to 15.7 MT. Meanwhile, margins contracted with OPM/NPM to 34.0%/24.9% (vs 45.3%/32.7% in 1Q22). Currently, ADRO is traded at the level of 3.25x/0.92x PER/PBV.
2. EXCL IJ will distribute cash dividends of up to IDR551.7 billion, or the equivalent of IDR42 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Therefore, EXCL will offer a dividend yield of 2.3%. DPS recorded a decrease from the previous year of IDR51 per share as the net profit performance decreased -13.9% YoY. Currently, EXCL is traded at the level of 21.48x/0.93x PER/PBV.
3. AVIA IJ booked a net profit of IDR416.8 billion, up +8.1% YoY (vs IDR385.4 billion in 1Q22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by an increase in revenue +8.7% YoY to IDR1.8 trillion (vs IDR1.6 trillion in 1Q22). However, NPM was relatively flat at 23.5% (vs 23.5% in 1Q22), due to other expenses and an increase in the tax rate. Currently, AVIA is traded at the level of 23.41x/3.88x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.82% to 6,787.63 on Friday (05/05), followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR337.17 billion. The majority of sectors experienced weakening and weighed on the index, led by the industrial sector (-2.29%) followed by the raw materials sector (-2.18%). On the other hand, sectors that experienced strengthening were led by the transportation sector (+0.30%) followed by the financial sector (+0.23%). The index weakened amid the release of data on GDP growth in 1Q23 which grew +5.03% YoY, while a significant decline in commodity prices became a negative sentiment. In addition, investors also wait and see before the release of US employment data. The rupiah closed higher at IDR14,675/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,762-6,822 pending the release of Foreign Exchange Reserves Apr data. Today's recommendation: BRIS, EXCL, RALS, SMDR.
Corporate Actions
IPO: DOOH (IDR100/share), RAAM (IDR234/share), TYRE (IDR138/share)
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