MNCS Morning Navigator

09 Mei 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator May 9, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA weakened -0.30% on Friday (06/05), followed by S&P 500 (-0.57%) while Nasdaq (-1.40%) Wall Street was under pressure as the US T-note 10Y yield rose to 3.13% which was driven by the Fed's monetary tightening through +50 bps interest rate (FFR) hikes. Furthermore, the potential for stagflation also weighed on Wall Street's performance triggered by the outlook for a still high inflation rate. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Wholesale Inventories MoM; 2) US Consumer Inflation Expectations; 3) France Balance of Trade.

Domestic Update
• The inflation in Indonesia on Apr-22 is estimated to increase by more than 3% YoY and the highest level since the pandemic. MNCS Comment: We estimate that inflation in Apr-22 will rise by 3.31% YoY in line with: 1) the implementation of 11% VAT; 2) increase in fuel and food prices during Ramadan.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 79.5% or equivalent to 165.63 million people.

Company News
1. UNVR IJ recorded a net revenue of IDR10.84 trillion in 1Q22 or up +5.40% YoY (vs IDR10.28 trillion in 1Q21). Net profit recorded an increase of +19.03% YoY to IDR2.02 trillion in 1Q22 (vs IDR1.69 trillion in 1Q21) (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: Performance growth was supported by domestic sales of IDR10.39 trillion, up +5.84% YoY. While efficiency was successfully achieved with marketing and sales expenses down -8.79% YoY, NPM grew to 18.65% in 1Q22 (vs 16.51% in 1Q21). Currently, UNVR is trading at the level of 18,36x/23,25x PER/PBV.
2. BSDE IJ posted revenue of IDR2.02 trillion in 1Q22 or up +21.69% YoY (vs IDR1.66 trillion in 1Q21). Net profit decreased -42.01% YoY to IDR347.90 billion in 1Q22 (vs IDR599.95 billion in 1Q21) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: The lower bottom line was caused by the increased COGS by +71.77% YoY to IDR767.36 billion in 1Q22. This was followed by the rise of selling expenses by +65.68% YoY to IDR288.53 billion in 1Q22. Currently, BSDE is trading at 14.68x/0.64x PER/PBV.
3. TAPG IJ recorded net sales of IDR2.19 trillion in 1Q22 or +62% YoY (vs IDR1.35 trillion in 1Q21). Net profit increased by +527% YoY to IDR873.51 billion in 1Q22 (vs IDR142.72 billion in 1Q21) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: The company recorded a production decline of -1.5% YoY 220,055 tons in 1Q22, due to heavy rains in early 2022. Meanwhile, the company's positive results were due to the increase in ASP, amid the significant increase in global CPO prices in 1Q22. Currently, TAPG is trading at 3.81x/1.59x PER/PBV levels.

IHSG Updates
JCI closed celebrate Eid 1443H and joint leave. Meanwhile, China's Caixin PMI declined once more to a level of 36.2 points due to the ongoing lockdown in several provinces. In addition, the market is also looking again at the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict where Russia is expected to increase the mobility of its troops in the invasion of Ukraine on 9 May-22. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed low at IDR14,497/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,200-7,260 while waiting for the release of Inflation Rate APR, GDP Growth Rate Q1, and Tourist Arrivals YoY MAR data. Today’s recommendation: ITMG, ASSA, TBIG, UNTR.

Corporate Action
Cum Dividend: SRTG (IDR60/share), BTPS (IDR61,75/share), DRMA (IDR14,97/share)

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