MNCS Morning Navigator

04 Oktober 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator October 04, 2021

Global Market Highlights

DJIA rose by +1.43% on Friday (01/10) followed by S&P 500 (+1.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.82%). Wall Street ended higher due to the release of positive economic data such as the lower number of Covid-19 cases, and the potential realization of the US Infrastructure Bill. The US Government released data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI Final which went up to 61.1 level on September-21 from the previous at 59.9 level on August-21. Meanwhile, personal spending on August-21 grew to 0.8% MoM (vs -0.01% MoM on July-21) indicating an increase in US consumer spending. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) US Factory Orders MoM; 2) Canada Building Permits MoM; 3) Eurozone Eurogroup Meeting.

Domestic Update
• As of September 30, foreign investors holdings in tradable Government Securities (GS) have decreased by IDR5.92 trillion to IDR961.8 trillion or equivalent to 21.56% of total GS from a week earlier. MNCS Comment: Outflows from the government bonds market were accompanied by 13 bps and 3.9 bps higher in 10-year Indo GB yield and 5-year Indo CDS respectively. Some influencing factors affecting outflows & rising yields were : 1) rising US treasury yields; 2) US debt ceiling concern; 3) the Fed tapering agenda; 4) rising risk in China's property market. Overall global sentiments were the main driver for rising in Indonesia government bond yields recently.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 127 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

Company News
1. PGAS IJ posted USD1.46 billion revenue in 1H21 or slightly lower by -0.43% YoY (vs USD1.47 billion in 1H20). While, COGS was stagnant at USD1.01 billion in 1H21. Net profit was recorded at USD196.51 million or a significant increase (vs USD6.72 million in 1H20) (emitennews). MNC Comment: The significant growth in net profit from PGAS was due to the reversal of provision from tax dispute of USD48.38 million, while the increase from venture profit by 119% YoY to USD50.51 million in 1H21, as well as gain from foreign exchange difference of USD13.02 million also boosted the company's performance. PGAS is currently trading at the level of 5,45x/0,88x PER/PBV.
will distribute an interim dividend of IDR11/share based on the financial statements of 1H21. The cum dividend date is on October, 11 2021 (emitennews).The payout ratio reached 1,05% (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: Dividends reached IDR53,01 billion, which is equivalent to 19,84% payout ratio from the 1H21 net profit of IDR267,06 billion. Dividend yield reached 1,05%. AUTO is currently trading at the level of 9,43x/0,48 PE/PBV.
3. AALI IJ will distribute an interim dividend of IDR102/share based on the financial statements of 1H21. Cum dividend date on October 11, 2021 (IQ Plus). MNC Comment: Total dividends reached IDR192.31 billion, which is equivalent to 29.62% payout ratio of 1H21 net profit of IDR649.34 billion. Dividend yield reached 1.02%. AALI is currently trading at the level of 14,82x/0,99x.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -0.92% to 6,228.85 on Friday (01/10) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR10.52 trillion. JCI closed lower in almost all sectors, led by the cyclical sector (-1.67%), followed by the health sector (-1.53%). On the other hand, the property sector strengthened by +0.81%, followed by the transportation sector (+0.40%). The JCI weakening was due to profit taking action by investors after strengthening in the last 2 days. On the other hand, Rupiah strengthened at IDR14,308 level on the spot market. We estimate the JCI will move in the range of 6,180-6,250. Today's recommendations: BMRI, PTBA, LPKR, MIKA.

Corporate Action

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