MNCS Morning Navigator

15 September 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator September 15, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened +0.10% on Wednesday (14/09), followed by the S&P500 (+0.34%) and the Nasdaq (+0.74%). Wall Street managed to rebound, as investors responded positively to the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data in Aug-22 which was in line with a consensus of -0.1% MoM. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Retail Sales Mom Aug; 2) US Continuing Jobless Claims YoY Aug; 3) US Industrial Production YoY Aug.

Domestic Update
• The trade balance surplus is estimated to reach USD4.3 billion in August-22, supported by exports +17.71% YoY and imports +25.55% YoY (MNCS Forecast). MNCS Comment: We expect that the trade balance surplus will continue in-line with high commodity prices, primarily for coal.
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 2,799 active cases (14/09).

Company News
1. JSMR IJ projected its 1H22 revenue to grow +18% YoY (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Currently, the financial report for 1H22 is still being audited. With this projection, the estimated net income in 1H22 can reach IDR8.12 trillion, supported by the company's main business, namely toll revenues which have recovered due to the post-pandemic. JSMR is currently traded at the level of 16.49x/1.24x PER/PBV.
2. INCO IJ reported that the realization of capex in 1H22 reached USD44.8 million (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Realized capex rose by +34.53% YoY from 1H21 of USD33.3 million. It is hoped that this increase will encourage the company's performance in line with the expansion of the company's smelters. Currently, INCO is traded at 14.94x/1.95x PER/PBV levels.
3. ADMR IJ targeted its FY23F coal production to reach 4 million tons (Kontan). MNCS Comment: In 1H22, the company's coal production rose by +6.99% YoY to 1.53 million tons (vs 1.43 million tons in 1H21). It is hoped that the increase in the target will encourage positive performance for the company. Where the selling price of coal in FY23F is estimated to remain high. ADMR is currently traded at the level of 13.32x/13.33x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.55% to 7,278.08 on Wednesday (14/09), followed by net foreign buy which reached IDR144.11 billion. The majority of sectors weakened and weighed on the index, led by the raw materials sector (-1.22%) followed by the industrial sector (-1.07%). On the other hand, the strengthening sector was led by the energy sector (+0.83%) followed by the non-cyclical sector (+0.21%). The weakening of the index was in line with Asian markets. Investors were looking at the release of US inflation data in Aug-22 which exceeded consensus by +0.1% MoM/+8.3% YoY (vs -0.1% MoM/+8.1% YoY on consensus), raising investor concerns regarding the potential for an aggressive FFR hike by the Fed. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at IDR14,908/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,200-7,280 pending the release of Balance of Trade YoY Aug, Exports YoY Aug, and Imports YoY Aug data. Today's recommendation: ANTM, ASII, BBRI, GZCO.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: EMTK (IDR5/share)
Public Expose: BMRI, ITMG

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