MNCS Morning Navigator

15 September 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator September 15, 2023

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA rose +0.96% on Thursday (14/09), followed by the S&P500 (+0.84%) and Nasdaq (+0.81%). Wall Street managed to close positively, with investors reacting favorably to the release of the retail sales data in Aug-2023, which grew by +0.6% MoM (vs +0.2% MoM consensus). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Sep-2023; 2) US Industrial Production Aug-2023; 3) France Inflation Rate YoY Final Aug-2023.

Domestic Update
The market is anticipating the trade balance data release for Aug-2023, which is expected to record a surplus for the 40th consecutive month. MNCS Comment: The consensus estimates the trade balance in Aug-2023 to have a surplus of USD1.5 billion, an increase from the realization in Jul-2023 which surpluses of USD1.31 billion. We attribute this rise to the robust strengthening of coal prices and a decrease in oil and gas imports, coinciding with normalization post the long holiday in early 3Q23.

Company News
1. AALI IJ aims for a total fresh fruit bunch production increase of +5.0% YoY in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Thus, AALI targets a total TBS production of 5.3 million tons in FY23E. Meanwhile, the TBS production realization in 1H23 reached 2.1 million tons (+8.0% YoY), reflecting 39.3% of the FY23E target. Currently, AALI is traded at the level of 19.57x/0.67x PER/PBV.
2. TLKM IJ projects a revenue growth in FY23E in the low-to-mid single digits compared to FY22 performance (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: We project TLKM's revenue/net profit growth in FY23E at +4.0% YoY/+15.4% YoY, reaching IDR153.2 trillion/IDR25.8 trillion, respectively. This will be supported by several business initiatives, such as the spin-off of Indihome and acceleration in the B2B business. Currently, TLKM is traded at the level of 14.29x/2.94x PER/PBV.
3. ASII IJ reported car sales of 377,358 units up to 8M23 (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: We noted that ASII's car sales in 8M23 increased by +5.6% YoY (vs 357,443 units in 8M22). With domestic car sales up to 8M23 reaching 675,287 units, ASII holds a market share of 55.9%. Currently, ASII is traded at the level of 7.34x/1.37x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.34% to 6,959.33 on Thursday (14/09), followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR964.99 billion. A number of sectors experienced strengthening and pushed up the index rate, led by the energy sector (+1.80%) followed by the raw materials sector (+1.25%). On the other hand, the sectors experiencing weakness were led by the infrastructure sector (-0.70%) followed by the non-cyclical sector (-0.70%). The index's rise aligns with the majority of Asian exchanges, where investors brushed off US inflation reports. Investors' attention will focus on the release of China's industrial production and retail sales data for Aug-2023. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR15,355/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 6,949-6,974 pending the release of Balance of Trade Aug-2023, Export Aug-2023, and Import Aug-2023 data. Today's Recommendations: BRIS, BRPT, MEDC, PGEO.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: TEBE (IDR30/share)

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