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MNCS Morning Navigator

16 September 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator September 16, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA weaekened by -0.56% on Thursday (15/09), followed by the S&P500 (-1.13%) and the Nasdaq (-1.43%). Wall Street was depressed as the US T-note 10Y yield increased to 3.45%, triggered by the release of initial jobless claims data as of September 10, 2022 which fell to 213,000 (vs. 218,000 previously). Retail sales in Aug-22 also recorded a growth of +0.3% MoM, exceeding consensus at +0%. This positive achievement raised market participants' concerns about the aggressiveness of the Fed's monetary tightening. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Sep; 2) UK Retail Sales YoY Aug; 3) UK Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY Aug.

Domestic Update
• The value of Indonesia's palm oil exports rose significantly to USD3.7bn in August-22 (vs The increase in the export value of palm oil was driven by a significant increase in volume. Palm oil export volume in Aug-22 reached 3.7mn tonnes (vs.2.2mn tonnes in Jul-22). Palm oil exports gradually recovered after the export ban was lifted. The jump in export volume also could offset the decline in prices and boost export performance and Indonesia's trade balance surplus in Aug-22.
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 2,651 active cases (15/09).

Company News
1. PTPP IJ targeted FY23F revenue and net profit growth in FY23F of +5-8% YoY respectively (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: We see that the increase in the budget for infrastructure needs in the 2023 RAPBN by +7.75% YoY to IDR392 trillion can be one of the drivers for the company in achieving this target. Currently, PTPP is traded at the level of 36.72x/0.58x PER/PBV.
2. MTDL IJ targeted FY22E revenue growth of 15% YoY (Kontan). MNCS Comment: In 1H22, the company's revenue and net profit grew by +27.54% YoY/+11.74% YoY, respectively. We are optimistic that the company can achieve this target supported by 1) expansion into the financial sector which is still solid; 2) awareness of increased IT security. Currently, MTDL is traded at the level of 14.71x/2.75x PER/PBV.
3. BBRI IJ targeted FY22E company's net profit to reach >IDR40 trillion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We project BBRI's net profit in FY22E to grow by +54.67% YoY to IDR47.57 trillion. With the DPR estimated at 70% and 151.56 billion shares outstanding, the DPS is estimated at IDR219.71/share or an increase of +26.09% YoY. BBRI is currently traded at the level of 2.47x PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.38% to 7,305.60 on Thursday (15/09), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR3.98 trillion. A number of sectors strengthened and pushed the index up, led by the property sector (+2.14%) followed by the financial sector (+0.98%). On the other hand, the weakening sectors were led by the technology sector (-1.15%) followed by the raw materials sector (-1.13%). The index's gain was in line with Wall Street and the majority of bourses. The positive catalyst came from the release of Indonesia's Trade Balance data on Aug-22 which had a surplus of USD5.76 billion, higher than the consensus estimate of USD4.06 billion, and succeeded in bringing the JCI to an all-time high level. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at IDR14,898/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the 7,200-7,350 price range. Today's recommendation: DOID, INDF, ISSP, PGAS.

Corporate Actions
Public Expose: TLKM, GGRM, SIDO

Disclaimer On

PTPP MTDL BBRI DOID INDF ISSP PGAS TLKM GGRM SIDO

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