Global Market Highlights
The DJIA rose by +0.09% on Friday (20/09). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (-0.19%) and the Nasdaq (-0.36%) weakened. Wall Street ended relatively flat as markets calmed after post-rate cut rallies. Additionally, investors are anticipating the release of S&P Global PMI data for Sep-2024. The manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 47.9bps to 48.5bps, while the services PMI flash is estimated to remain stable at 55.2bps (vs 55.7bps in Aug-2024). Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) Indonesia M2 Money Supply Aug-2024; 2) GB S&P Global Composite PMI Flash Sep-2024; 3) US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash Sep-2024.
Domestic Update
BI reported based on transactions from September 17-19, 2024, non-residents in the domestic financial market recorded a net purchase of IDR25.60 trillion. This figure includes a net inflow of IDR4.19 trillion in the stock market, IDR19.76 trillion in SBN market, and IDR1.66 trillion in SRBI. MNCS Comment: YTD until September 19th, 2024, foreign transactions have recorded a net purchase in the SBN market amounting to IDR21.39 trillion, IDR51.85 trillion in the stock market, and IDR186.85 trillion in SRBI. We believe the recovery in inflows during this period was driven by the unexpected interest rate cuts by both BI and the Fed, which likely boosted investor confidence and spurred foreign participation in the domestic financial markets.
Company News
1. MAHA IJ aims for +25.0% YoY increase in revenue in FY24E to IDR2.5 trillion. MNCS Comment: This target reflects a significant increase from the revenue obtained in FY23 at IDR2.0 trillion. In 1H24, the company has achieved IDR1.2 trillion in revenue, reflecting 50.0% of the target in FY24E. In addition to the extension of its coal hauling contract for the Tabang project until 2034, the company is also investing in new equipment and expanding to new segments, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and market position in the coal transportation sector. MAHA is currently trading at 15.41x/1.84x PER/PBV.
2. SMRA IJ reported a significant increase in net profit of +70.5% YoY to IDR753.7 billion in 1H24 (vs IDR442.0 billion in 1H23). MNCS Comment: The substantial rise in net profit was driven by an +89.6% YoY increase in revenue to IDR5.7 trillion (vs IDR3.0 trillion in 1H23). Despite the cost of sales growing by +88.4% YoY, gross profit grew by +90.6% YoY to IDR3.0 trillion in 1H24 (vs IDR1.6 trillion in 1H23). Additionally, other operating income surged by +111.7% YoY and other operating expenses declined by -48.8% YoY. As a result, margins expanded, with GPM/OPM rising to 52.4%/39.3% (vs 52.1%/31.0% in 1H23). SMRA is currently trading at 7.50x/1.08x PER/PBV.
3. PTBA IJ signed a strategic partnership agreement with PT Kereta Api Logistik. MNCS Comment: This deal includes a coal unloading service agreement at Kramasan Coal Terminal, aiming to increase PTBA’s coal transport capacity and accelerate the monetization of its substantial coal reserves, particularly in South Sumatra. Furthermore, PTBA also is currently building the Tanjung-Kramasan railway, which is expected to enhance the company’s coal transportation by up to 20 million tons per year. PTBA is currently trading at 8.36x/1.75x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -2.05% to 7,743.00 on Friday (20/09), amid a net foreign buy of IDR523 billion. The majority of sectors declined, weighing down the index, led by the infrastructure sector (-3.26%), followed by the basic materials sector (-2.11%). On the other hand, the sectors that gained were led by the healthcare sector (+0.97%) and the transportation sector (+0.55%). The index weakened as volatility increased in response to Japan’s Aug-2024 inflation rate, which expanded to 3.0% YoY (vs 2.8% YoY previously). This raised concerns that the BoJ might increase its benchmark interest rate again. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR15,150/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,710-7,806. Today's recommendations: AKRA, BSDE, MAPI, MBMA.
Corporate Actions
EGMS: MSIN
AGMS: LINK
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