Cautiously Optimistic Onward
Key Takeaways:
• Retail companies in our coverages have been showing recoveries. In 9M22, the aggregate revenue and net income climbed up by +22.3%/+166.3% YoY, respectively, driven by the increasing mobility and buying power.
• We foresee the aggregate and net income went up by +44.7%/+32.6% YoY in FY23F, respectively, supported by: 1) better inventory days close to pre pandemic level; 2) improving omnichannel strategy; 3) ample cash to maintain liquidity.
• We anticipate the USD/IDR depreciation to continue in FY23F at around IDR15,550-16,050/USD, driven by: 1) FFR projection up to 4.75%; 2) Quantitative tightening by the Fed.
• We maintain an Overweight recommendation for the retail sector supported by domestic resiliency macro background and pro-stability policies that should benefit consumer spending, especially on discretionary spending amidst the stubborn inflation hikes.
Disclaimer On
