Hitting Pay Dirt from Gold's Upsoar
Key Takeaways :
• In FY22 ANTM acquired IDR45.9tn in revenue (+19.5% YoY vs IDR38.5tn in FY21) with a gross profit of IDR8.2tn (+29% YoY vs IDR6.4tn in FY21) and an improved GPM of 17.9% by provident cash cost management amid high fuel costs. The net profit came in at IDR3.8tn (+105.2% YoY vs IDR1.8tn in FY21), accompanied with an OPM/NPM of 8.6%/8.3%.
• The gold segment remains the top revenue contributor (69%) and grew 22% YoY to IDR31.6tn (vs IDR25.9tn in FY21), aided by a jump in both sales volume (19% YoY) and ASP (2.4% YoY).
• The ferronickel segment pulled in IDR6.9tn or grew 12.6%, supported by a 15.8% YoY ASP hike bolstered by economic and geopolitical surprises that unfolded in FY22, despite lower sales volume (-6.9% YoY).
• We view the ferronickel segment's sales in FY23 to be boosted by 11,5% from the new East Halmahera Plant set to commence in 2H23, while the gold's segment is open to upsides from gold spot's rally amid recession fears and Fed's pivoting anticipations.
We recommend ANTM with a BUY call and a target price of IDR2,400 (13.7% upside), implying PE/PBV of 14.67x/2.23x in FY23E. ANTM’s valuation is also attractive as it is currently traded below its -1 STD 5-year EV/EBITDA band. Downside risks to our call include: 1) Fed Fund rate’s delayed pivoting, 2) delayed ferronickel plant commencement, and 3) brewing global economic recession.
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