Who Will Win The Race?
Unexpected Position from Newcomers in LMPV…
the increasing competition of 4W manufacturers in the LMPV segment resulted in a change in the
role of the players, where Toyota Avanza was overtaken by Mitsubishi Xpander during 9M18.
Consumer’s appetite for Mitsubishi Xpander had taken its market share to 30.58% (66,125 units)
from LMPV segment in 10M18. As can be seen from average sales per month in 10M18, Mitsubishi
Xpander sales per month (6,613 units/month) is head to head with Toyota Avanza sales with 6,794
units/month. Meanwhile, Toyota Avanza could take over to first place again (31.42% market share
with 67,940 units) after was beaten by Mitsubishi Xpander in 10M18, with Toyota Avanza Transmover
sales in Oktober 2018 that was intended for one of taxi companies in Indonesia.
...As Well As The Increasingly-Crowded LSUV Segment
Amid tight LMPV segment competition, Brand Holder Agent compensates it by increasing LSUV
sales which grew by 39.81% YoY in 10M18. All New Rush launched by Toyota managed to record
sales of 45,156 units during 10M18, and became a market leader with market share of 42.39%. All
New Terios by Daihatsu also booked shining performance with 157.54% YoY growth in 10M18,
reached 23.62% market share for LSUV segment. This new LSUV (Rush Toyota and Terios Daihatsu)
from Astra International (ASII), successfully marked its position with 66.01% market share of LSUV
segment (vs 34.01% in 10M17) which surpassed all-time favourite LSUV from Honda. We see that
LSUV players who are also increasing in numbers, will tighten the competition in its segment.
Commercial Vehicles as Kings of Growth
Throughout 10M18, Commercial Vehicle (CV) sales experienced significant growth, namely, 18.93%
YoY to 229,863 units which supported 4W sales growth. This can be seen from the composition of
commercial vehicles which had touched its lowest point in FY16, which was 19% of total 4W sales,
growing to 24% in 1H18, whereas during the commodity boom, the composition of commercial
vehicles reached 27%-30%. Infrastructure development, such as toll roads and overpasses, had
already completed, which contributed to inter-city and intra-city traffic, especially those related to
logistics. This can be seen from Indonesia's Logistic Performance (LPI) in 2018 at 3.15, reaching 46th
rank from 160 countries. LPI rating was significantly rose, compared to 2016 which was at 2.98 in
63rd position. We see that CV will continue to book strong performance as logistics activities is still
growing.
Recommendation: NEUTRAL with Top Pick: ASII (HOLD; TP: IDR8,500)
The automotive sector has the opportunity to grow, supported by an increase in online
transportation and the commercial vehicle segment, along with good commodity prices,
infrastructure development, and e-commerce development. However, we see tight competition in
both the LMPV and LSUV segments, as well as fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate and rising
interest rates, could potentially hamper recovery of the automotive sector. Therefore, we recommend
NEUTRAL with ASII as selected shares (HOLD; TP: IDR8,500).
