FY23’s Achievement Hit Home, to Continue with Modesty in FY24E
Key Takeaways:
▪️EXCL’s performance in FY23 met MNCS/Consensus estimation, with revenue grew at +10.9% YoY at IDR32.4tn (reflecting 99.7%/101.6% MNCS/Consensus), followed by a +11.6% YoY rise of EBITDA (reflecting 98.0%/101.4% MNCS/Consensus), and a +14.6% YoY increase of net income. Management’s monetization efforts played a crucial role to this performance, resulting in a blended ARPU of IDR42k (vs IDR39k in FY22).
▪️We foresee the growth to continue modestly in FY24E, with +7.4% YoY growth in revenue and +7.6% of EBITDA. Our rationale stems from a more constructive competitive landscape in the MNO market recently and EXCL’s steady subscribers base.
▪️Entering a binding agreement to acquire LINK’s FBB subscribers, this deal could potentially boost EXCL’s Home subscriber base to 1mn, or the 2nd biggest player in the FBB industry. We estimate an increase in its blended FBB ARPU to IDR346k-IDR401k after delayering.
▪️We maintain a BUY recommendation for EXCL with TP of IDR2,850/share (+22.3% upside), implying 4.97x of FY24E EV/EBITDA.
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